Group 1 Selections Racing Season 17/18

G1S

 

Been a quiet couple of weeks on the blog with a few preparations being made for the new racing season (starting August 1st). Beginning in August I am hoping there will be a wider range of content to be found here. Fewer actual bets/ tips will lead to a more in-depth preview of the selections posted. A running results sheet will also be kept looking at daily, weekly and overall Strike Rate % and Profit On Turnover %.

Will also be looking to preview the major Group 1 Races as well as offer insight to future racing and current issues. Stay on the lookout for daily selections and content that will also be published on Facebook and Twitter.

G1 Selections Saturday 15.07.2017 Bets

G1S

Rosehill
Race 4 1 Arbeitsam  $           4.40
Race 5 9 Faith’s Encore  $           4.80
Race 6 11 Sir Plush  $           3.00 Exacta 11 & 12
12 Suspense  $           8.50
Race 9 3 Zaunkonig  $        12.00
Caulfield
Race 1 9 Pakaya Prince  $           6.00
Race 2 10 Aljawzaa  $           5.00
Race 3 6 Abriola  $           6.00
Race 4 1 Kiwia  $           2.30
Race 7 8 Cashed EW  $        26.00
Race 8 6 Divine Chills  $           3.80
Race 9 8 Schism  $           3.25
5 Airalign  $           8.50
Sunshine Coast
Race 3 10 Spur Le Jouer  $           6.50
15 Unbowed EW  $        61.00
Race 4 4 Shogun Sun  $           6.00
Race 6 6 Barnsley  $           8.00
9 Precision Strike EW  $        17.00
Race 8 3 Mishani El Lobo  $        11.00 Quin 5,3,1
Quad 6,9,14,7,4/2,5,4/5,3,1,14/7,4,3/ 240
Townsville
Race 4 1 Ranked EW  $        12.00
Race 6 7 I’ll Take The Jag  $        10.00
Race 7 7 Dream Kisses  $           2.10
All Up R6-7 into R7-7  $        21.00

G1Selections Saturday 14.07.2017 Bets

G1S

 

Will try and find the time to put up the preview in the morning but may struggle for time. In any case below are the bets and prices taken and will repost after scratchings tomorrow:

Rosehill
Race 4 1 Arbeitsam  $           4.40
Race 5 9 Faith’s Encore  $           4.80
Race 6 11 Sir Plush  $           3.00 Exacta 11 & 12
12 Suspense  $           8.50
Race 9 3 Zaunkonig  $        12.00
Caulfield
Race 2 10 Aljawzaa  $           5.00
Race 5 6 Nesbo  $        19.00
Race 7 6 Chocolate Holic  $           5.00
8 Cashed EW  $        26.00
Race 9 8 Schism  $           3.25
Sunshine Coast
Race 3 10 Spur Le Jouer  $           6.50
15 Unbowed EW  $        61.00
Race 6 6 Barnsley  $           8.00
9 Precision Strike EW  $        17.00
Race 8 3 Mishani El Lobo  $        11.00 Quin 5,3,1
Quad 6,9,14,7,4/2,5,4/5,3,1,14/7,4,3,15/ 240
Townsville
Race 4 1 Ranked EW  $        12.00
Race 6 7 I’ll Take The Jag  $        10.00
Race 7 7 Dream Kisses  $           2.10
All Up R6-7 into R7-7  $        21.00

State Of Origin Wrap Up and The Future

I very rarely discuss Rugby League on this blog or in social media in general but after sitting through last nights dominate win in Origin III at Suncorp and reading the comments about dynasties, champions, immortals and implosions I have had trouble getting it out of my head.

First off I would like to state I am a QLD’er but not a one-eyed, maroon wearing, XXXX Gold chugging fan. I love rugby league, love watching the games within a game. I enjoy watching those naturals that exceed and make the sport look second nature whilst also admiring those with less skills that perform at the highest level through guts and determination. I also see the dominance of QLD in this series and in fact the last 12-13 years as a strain on the very fabric of the State Of Origin Series itself. For the interest of the series it needs to be competitive, for surely player interest from the side that is on the wrong side of the ledger will wane. Yes the 35k and playing at the highest level will keep a side in the contest, but will it be enough to ensure players enter without a defeatist mentality, a mentality of “here we go again”.

Before focussing on the issues in NSW we need to acknowledge what we have in the QLD team that has been gifted with a poker hand full of aces when their opponent is holding 10’s. You look through that side of the last 12-13 years and I count at least 8 players that would make a fantasy best ever QLD side without competition including: Lockyer, Slater, Inglis, Thurston, Cronk, Scott, Parker, Smith, Civonceiva. You could also put up a case for the likes of Thaiday, Hodges and Bowen. Out of those names at the very least I see 5 future immortals and possibly ever 6!! This freakish bunch of athletes are at least once in a generation players individually yet put them in a team together and of course you can expect the dynasty they have provided and all the glory that should be bestowed on them. We can all talk about the QLD spirit, mateship, mental toughness and all the other “Queenslander” attributes. But the fact is here we have the equivalent of the Australian Cricket Test Team of the late 90’s- early 2000’s facing off against an opponent that are fair to middling at best.

Which is where we focus on NSW themselves. Not since Andrew Johns went around one last time in 2005 when he almost lifted the side and threw them over the line for their 3rd series win has NSW been truly dominant in the State Of Origin arena. Since that time their have been close calls, hard luck stories and complete hidings. There has been a merry-go-round of coaches, of halves and of course, experts from the sidelines. But it would be unfair to the players in that time to say they have not been competitive enough to put themselves into winning opportunities. The sides of 06,11,12,13 and now 17 have all given themselves a chance, but to only take that chance once (14) out five opportunities is simply not good enough.

If one is to sit back and watch these series again they will find the key moments that make these series feel like groundhog day. It is the lack of impact key players or “the spine” have in clutch moments. It is perhaps unfair on those that have filled these roles, NSW have not had a player anywhere near the ability of Andrew Johns, Brad Fittler or Laurie Daley since 2005, 12 years since the state produced a champion half. A quick look through the Clive Churchill medal winners on Grand Final day in that time is also a haunting fact, no NSW half has stood up in the biggest game of the year and led their side to victory. Meanwhile five players from this current QLD squad have led their team to the Holy Grail in this time and been duly rewarded. In fact there is probably only 2 players that would find themselves selected in the QLD side during their decade of dominance. Paul Gallen for his tireless work ethic and undeniable ability to be one of the most dominant meter gainers in origin history and Jarryd Hayne who at his best delivered NSW their only series win during this decade of dynasties and has been a constant handful. But QLD fans would most probably disagree.

So where to from here, what can a mug punter and past bush footballer from QLD offer to solve the problems of the enemy state? Talent is not a problem, NSW have won every u20 annual fixture vs QLD in the last 6 years. Players such as Fifita, Tedesco, Hayne, Wade Graham, Jack Bird, Jake Trbojevic have all the skills in the world. Players such as David Klemmer, Boyd Cordner, Josh Jackson and Tyson Frizell are certainly tough enough. But the issue is the players that bind this toughness and skill together and turn it into points, and here lies the problem.

NSW does not have halves knocking down the door, and the halves they do have are not those who’s games are suited to origin. In theory, Mitchell Pearce’s game is. He plays direct, he digs into the line, he defends well, he has a strong long kicking game and a decent enough passing game, his broken field cover defence is excellent as is his kick chase… at club level. Watching the 2nd half of origin II 2017 when NSW surely should have closed out the game I was shocked to see on the 4th and 5th tackle of the set that both James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce were rarely to be seen demanding the ball. They were not pushing their forwards into positions to run block plays or to take another settler, they were not shoving players out of first receiver, nor were they screaming into young Nathan Peats’s ear telling him they wanted the ball early to roll out the next play. At times Maloney and Pearce looked at each other as if waiting for the other to overcall and offer relief. At other times Jarryd Hayne and Wade Graham were forced to come up with a play off the cuff and neither were in position or mindset to do this, they have their own jobs and skill sets to execute without carrying the burden of their star struck halves.

In my mind I would have hooked Pearce there and then and given the side to James Maloney for game 3 and brought in Matthew Moylen. Maloney had been and has been the dominant half throughout the series, I think he is a better player when he takes ownership of a side (Cronulla being the perfect case in point) but I can see why Daley and Sterling played the safe route. It is their neck on the line and dominance of the first 120 minutes of the 2017 series offered by this same 17 is hard to forget.

But now what? Another series loss and more questions than answers. The nucleus of side is there. The bench for NSW has been excellent all series, at times better than the starting pack. I thought Blake Ferguson was excellent in the series especially the tough meters he makes off his own line, multiple times bumping off QLD hard man Napa, Tedesco is both safe and elusive at the back, Fifita, Cordner, Frizell have all done enough. All this pales in the face of the biggest headache of all though. Who plays 6,7 and 9 moving forward?

Despite origin football being the fastest, toughest and intense brand of the game it is also rugby league in its purist form and should be kept simple, no time for flashy set plays, no sideline to sideline shifts with risky 3 man cut out balls. The best teams in origin do the simple things well, they play direct, they play through the opposition and they play back through the middle. When you have the best players in the code marking each other one on one the wide shift plays are easy to defend, these calibre of players rarely make one on one misses in defence. The key is to get the opposition to make mental lapses under fatigue, kick for position by finding the turf and force a mistake through your defence. Turn players inside when the A and B defenders are so tired they cannot cover the ground to close the space, have your halves play at the line and take the line on so defences do not know when they need to be taking the ball or staying on their outside man. Your dummy half needs to know when to take advantage of the quick play the balls off his big men and to spot a lazy marker or an A or B defender with his back turned or with his feet planted. But you need to the players with the smarts between the ears and the toughness to take the knocks that come with this game plan. To the future, and this is where it seems bleak, where are these players and how do they fit with the current lot?

At their best the two greatest NSW origin halfbacks in my time in Ricky Stuart and Andrew Johns had a number of thing in common- toughness, unmatched kicking games, vision and the ability to read the pace of the game. They also took the line on, challenged defences and never clocked off. But they also had a prototype player alongside them in the halves, and the most successful sides had a big, hard running but also skilful 5/8 in partnership with their scheming number seven. For Stuart it was Laurie Daley and for Johns it was either Brad Fittler, Trent Barrett and even Braith Anasta. All these players were the same mould, big enough and brave enough to play in the centres or back row but still with the skill set to create at 5/8. They could hit a hole or create one and this is what causes the headaches, give the side to your halfback at let these players pick their moments. The fact is QLD currently has 3 of these players. Michael Morgan, Cameron Munster as well as Greg Inglis when he comes back. Looking through the current NRL sides NSW has barely one. Out of the current group I see Wade Graham, Matthew Moylen and Jarryd Hayne all being able to play this role but to what extent, Graham is brilliant on the edges in the backrow and has played in the 6 in the past but weakening one position to strengthen another? Moylen has made an impressive shift to the number six for his club side and played well in the position for the blues in Game III 2016 but he is a small body and could be exposed on the edge. That leaves me the one player I see as the fit in Jarryd Hayne, he is frustrated at centre and has received little early ball from his current halves. I in fact prefer him at fullback where he can drift but I think in the right team the five- eighth jersey can suit, providing the creativity comes from inside him.

To pull off the above you need all the attributes of a Johns, Sterling or Stuart but unfortunately unless you are the current QLD side there does not seem to be these once in a generation players lining up. I have narrowed it down to 1 single half in the current game that plays direct and at the line, has a strong kicking games and currently organises and directs their club sides around the park, Nathan Cleary. I hate to throw his name up, the kid is young and really should be given time to develop. I would like to see him guide his side deep into the finals again to help season him further but deadest the cupboard is bare. I would bring in Andrew Johns to the squad for every session to help and assist his game, not for the skill sets but mentally what to expect and how to prepare for the moments under fatigue and defensive pressure. Is it throwing the kid to the wolves? Perhaps but name me another option that NSW would be comfortable moving ahead with?

To play a ball running 5/8 and an extremely young half then your dummy half needs to provide both creativity and a calmness to read the situation of the game and its ebbs and pulses. I will point out here that no one has tried harder in the current series that Nathan Peats, his defence has been massive (57 tackles Game 2) and he has played huge minutes. But he offers little in creativity out of the positon in both ball playing and as well as his darts out of dummy half. Nathan made 3, 3 and 1 dummy half darts for 60m in the three matches, in game III Cameron Smith made 18 runs for 112m. Mentally go through the current NRL sides and find a hooker that is not from QLD, NZ or England that offers the above. There is not even a half that can be turned into a number nine. So I would turn to the man that had the job in the first place in Peter Wallace before injury struck, he provides creativity and experience, he plays with Nathan Cleary at club level and you can either start him and play him the eighty or include him on the bench.

I do not expect to see Laurie Daley to front up in 2018. He looked a shattered man after game 2 and a ghost after game 3. He knows with the new breed of QLD’er coming through it will be even tougher, one has to remember in key positions Corey Oates, Darrius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Daly Cherry Evans, Ash Taylor, Matt Scott, Jake Friend, Anthony McCullagh, Jake Granville all wait in the wings for their opportunity. I also don’t know who NSW selectors will turn to, a couple of NSW greats in Fittler and Johns are being pushed and I think both have something to offer. I think Matthew Johns also has something to offer in the way of at least bringing a side together. But as for the clipboard in hand, tactical coach with the ability to break down the game of the opposition as well their own players I do not see an answer. Remember one of the greatest coaches in Craig Bellamy could succeed and that speaks volumes. But this is the team as it stands right now, 12 months out, before injuries, before form cycles that I would be putting on the turf.

Fullback J Tedesco
L Wing J Mansour
L Centre J Bird
R Centre J Dugan
R Wing B Ferguson
Five- Eighth J Hayne
Halfback N Cleary
Front Row D Klemmer
Hooker P Wallace
Front Row J Trbojevic
L Second Row W Graham
R Second Row B Cordner
Lock T Frizell
Reserve A Fifita
Reserve J De Belin
Reserve I Yeo
Reserve D Cook
Squad L Kleary
Squad T Trbojevic
Squad P Vaughn

 

In the end I am just another mug with an opinion, and I am from QLD so what do I care? I care because State of Origin needs to be competitive, if it is not it will die. Can the competition survive another decade of dominance? Watching Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai, Michael Morgan, Cameron Munster and the entire QLD forward pack on the weekend it is certainly not out of the question.

I think there are those within NSW that know what is needed, I certainly would retain the  services of Peter Sterling. But it looks tough for NSW in the face of QLD side that still contains a number of champions and a promising bunch in waiting. Something needs to change because if you keep doing what you always do you will most certainly get what you always get.

Group 1 Selections Saturday 08.07.2017

 

G1S

Preview of Saturday Selections: All bets can be found at the bottom of this post.

Flemington- Track Soft 6

Race 2:

6 Show A Star $4.00- This bloke has been super consistent in a very interesting prep (5 runs all around 1 month apart!) and I think he finds himself in a much easier race here. The 2000m looks to be his outer limits but a repeat of last start looks to be around 2L better of these.

Race 5:

3 Overstep – been kind to me this filly and seem to enjoy the space here at Flemington with 2 wins and a luckless 4th in her last 2 starts. Fast Stryke, Woomera, Liberty Song, Mistoffelees all look to go forward and provide a decent tempo for her to finish off again.

Race 7:

14 Strike Force $11.00- Bit of value here about a horse I see as progressive. Really liked the way he finished of at Sale and was good first up when 3 wide and only beaten 2.4L by a smart one. Ran a near career peak at Flemington last prep and providing he doesn’t get shuffled all the way back from that gate, I believe he will be right in this.

Race 8:

7 Ability $3.20- best of the day in Melbourne and was extremely impressive in his narrow win last start. Ran a career peak first up and backed that up with another well rated performance. 1200m in this grade looks to suit and looks a nice horse going forward from here. Camdus the only danger for me.

Warwick Farm- Track: Soft 6

Race 1:

3 Brook Magic $4.40– Couldn’t have been any more impressive in her last 2 runs at Kembla Grange, soft going wont be a problem and should be handy- on pace at worst.

4 Luiza $8.00 Was impressed with her Debut win last spring, stable took her to Sydney for a decent race at the Valley and was not disgraced beaten 3.8L 4th Azazel. Trialled well last time and may have class edge.

Race 5:

8 Buddy Honest $23.00- No huge bet here but I thought he was good when leading all the way for a 1.5L win, looks to lead this field easily and no one doing that better than Rachael Murray at the moment. Not a huge amount needed to risk at good EW odds.

Race 6:

2 Spending To Win $5.00- have this horse pegged as one of the best of the day and opened up some nice overs. Was impressive 1st up New Years Eve at Canterbury and form around the better 3yo’s in that prep. This is easier, a hungry Hugh Bowman up and soft track all in his favour. Good bet.

Race 8:

2 Your Way $3.60– Super consistent mare, makes her own luck. Cruised through the BM grades last and I think Bjorn Baker may have some late Autumn races in mind. Goes all surfaces and Timmy Clarke seems to find her best (5-4-0-0). Think she looks the class in this field.

7 Hot Hit $7.00– did have this gelding marked as some value at the $7.00 but that has now gone so cant possibly bet it at current price (rated $4.50) may have to work hard to find the front but if he does he is a fighter. Danger to the top selection

Doomben- Track Soft 6

Race 2:

7 Khalama $7.50- Some question mark she lines up with no rider declared, but was super impressive behind Beat Street in the midweeks last start, she got so far back and I don’t think she needs to having shown the ability to settle closer to the speed. Think she is better on top of the ground but the soft 6 should be ok being an ex- NZer. If she settles closer I think she can finish over the top of them.

Race 7:

11 Backslapper $7.00- comes out of Rockhampton grade when pretty impressive being wide throughout with the 60kg, comes into tougher grade here but drops 6kg to the minimum here. Drawn the rails and that could be an advantage on this track when on pace.

Race 8:

10 Moonlight Dancer $23.00- Very tough race here but feel I may have found one that has slipped through the cracks, consistent mare who is never far away and runs through the line. Came back well with a nice win at Caloundra 1st up before being a horror run last start when cantering when blocked at the top at the straight and then again over the final 200m when beaten 4L. Larry Cassidy can come wide here and keep her out of trouble. Looks to be the pace in this race to allow her to be running on.

Mackay- Track Good 4

Race 6:

5 Rocky King $1.95- These class city gallopers are thrown in at WFA against country horses and this bloke is coming off a 4L win at Rockhampton when lugging the 59kg (2kg claimer on) I think he will just have far too much class against this field. Should lead and win.

Race 7:

13 Grand Emperor $21.00– Its a shame that one of the most exciting horses in Central/ North QLD looks like missing a run in Conca Del Sogno as he has been simply brilliant since coming north. But we did however get some cracking odds from the well performed southerner in 13 Grand Emperor. Am confident the BM78 form at Moonee Valley/Morphettville/ Sandown measures up here and he rattled home well below Bomber Miss last start. Some big overs on the early market.

All bets (prices when taken Wednesday, Friday in Mackay as well as Market when posted)

Warwick Farm  Wed Sbet  Fri Sbet
Race 1 3 Brook Magic  $           4.40  $       3.80
4 Luiza  $           8.00  $       8.00
Race 5  8 Buddy Honest EW  $         23.00  $    16.00
Race 6  2 Spending To Win  $           5.00  $       3.90
Race 8  2 Your Way  $           3.60  $       3.40
 7 Hot Hit  $           7.00  $       4.40
Flemington
Race 2  6 Show A Star  $           4.00  $       3.90
Race 5  3 Overstep  $           4.40  $       4.40
Race 7  14 Strike Force  $         11.00  $    12.00
Race 8  7 Ability  $           3.20  $       3.20
Quad  4,5,8,7,12/3,14,6,10,15/7/4,1,3,17,14,7
Doomben
Race 2  7 Khalama  $           7.50  $       7.50
 12 Jest Excel  $           7.00  $       7.00
Race 6  9 Land Office  $           4.40  $       4.00
Race 7  11 Backslapper  $           7.00  $       7.00
Quad  1,9/11,9,5,13/5,9,1,10/1,10,5,16,3
Mackay
Race 6  5 Rocky King  $           1.95  $       1.95
Race 7  13 Grand Emperor  $         21.00  $    21.00
Gawler
Race 8  6 Go The Journey  $           5.50  $       5.50
Belmont
Race 3  5 Kramden EW  $         10.00  $    10.00
Gold Coast
Race 4  2 Sheza Lily  $           2.20  $       2.10
Kembla Grange
Race 8  6 Storm On Ew  $         17.00  $    17.00

 

 

 

 

Group 1 Selections Saturday 17.06.2017

G1S

 

Ipswich Cup day in QLD and typical off season races in Syd and Melb. I am more confident than usual with the ratings specials today, think at least 2-3 of these should get up.

Ratings specials

Venue Selection  Odds 
BR3 6 Steamin  $               5.00
MR2 5 Airino  $               4.40
SR4 6 Test The World  $               3.00
MR3 4 Appalachian Annie  $               7.50
MR5 8 Camdus  $               8.00
QR8 6 Cliff  $               3.70

 

Better bets around the country:

Ipswich
Race 8 7 Cantbuybetter
Race 9 5 Maternal
Rosehill
Race 1 2 Gaulois
Race 8 2 Noumea EW
Moonee Valley
Race 7 2 Megablast
Morphettville
Race 5 2 Irish Mint
Belmont
Race 2 9 Show Honey
Race 3 10 Rosewood Hill

 

All Bets taken as of Wednesday/Thursday

Ipswich
Race 1 8 Barnsley  $       6.00
9 Moonlight Dancer  $       8.50
Race 2 6 William Wallace  $       4.60
Race 3 8 Call The Captain  $       5.50 Quin 6,8,13
6 Steamin  $       4.00
13 Eight Below  $       9.00
Race 4 3 Intitialize  $       5.50
Race 5 9 Prue’s Angel  $    13.00
Race 6 9 Hot Money  $       6.50
Race 7 2 Jumbo Prince  $       5.50 Quin 2,4,1
4 Kaizer Franz  $    16.00
Race 8 7 Cantbuybetter  $       9.00
Race 9 5 Maternal  $       7.50 Tri 5,1,3,10,7
10 Lucky Show Girl  $    20.00
Moonee Valley
Race 3 4 Appalachian Anne  $       8.00
Race 5 8 Campdus  $       6.50
Race 7 2 Megablast  $       9.00
Rosehill
Race 1 2 Gaulois  $       3.00
Race 4 6 Test The World  $       5.00
Race 8 2 Noumea EW  $    31.00 Quin 7,2,12
Morphetville
Race 5 2 Irish Mint  $    10.00 Quin 2,3,11
11 Explode Into Space  $    21.00
Race 8 10 Our Prospect  $    10.00
Belmont
Race 2 9 Show Honey  $       2.70
Race 3 10 Rosewood Hill  $       3.50
Race 5 5 Scalpel  $       5.50
3 Belter  $       6.00

Group 1 Selections Saturday 10.06.2017

4 Ratings Specials Today:

10/06/17 Venue Selection  Odds 
NR3 8 Running Broke  TF
PR3 4 Dainty Tess  TF
MR7 Tshahitsi  TF
AR7 Chamois Road  TF

All Bets Taken On Wed/Thurs (Deductions/Scratchings Apply)

Doomben Rated  Best Avail 
Race 1  
2 Tactical Advantage  $        3.30  $          4.00
14 All Over Bosanova  $        4.50  $          5.00
Race 2
4 Quatronic  $        6.80  $          9.00
17 Le Chef  $        9.70  $        21.00
 8 Jimmy Rea  $      13.40  $        21.00
Race 3 
1 Religify  $        2.70  $          3.20
 3 Col N Lil  $        4.30  $          6.00
10 Mystic Opal  $        8.40  $          9.50
Race 4
9 Bonny Oreilly  $        2.50  $          4.20
16 My True Love  $      10.50  $        17.00
 3 Madotti  $      36.00  $        61.00
Race 6
 2 Tangled  $      10.40  $        13.00
 9 Up Trumpz  $      41.00  $        61.00
Race 7
 1 Volatile Mix  $        4.90  $          7.00
Race 8
1 Clearly Innocent  $        2.50  $          5.00
18 Bonny Oreilly  $        8.30  $        13.00
Race 9
1 Single Gaze  $        4.70  $          5.50
 6 Kaiser Franz  $        9.00  $        26.00
Rosehill
Race 2 4 Best Guess  $       5.50
Race 3 3 Clipper  $       2.80
Race 4 1 Broadside  $       2.60
Race 6 8 Test The World  $       5.50
Race 8 11 Dowdstown Charlie  $       8.50
2 Curragh  $       8.00
Race 9
Flemington
Race 1 1 Counterplay  $       5.50
Race 2 2 Pedrena  $       4.80
Race 3 4 Military Reign  $       5.00
Race 8 5 Overstep  $       4.80 Quin 5,2,1
2 Removal EW  $    23.00
Race 9 16 Miss Universe EW  $    41.00
Morphettville
Race 7 2 Counter Pulse  $       3.40

Group 1 Selections Sunday 04.06.2017

cropped-g1s.png

 

Pretty disappointing day yesterday so we will have a look at a few races today including two that I sent out this morning:

Morning all very keen on two today at the Sunshine Coast.

R1: 1 Bring It Home Pop $3.40- Was on at 40-1 on debut when knocked at the start and scrubbed up to be on pace before going down by 0.4L to Cellargirl (impressive winner yesterday) impressive winner next start at EF beating home the likes of Dream Kisses and Pardoe (another winner yesterday) as well as I Am Venus, straight up to G3 level when not disgraced beaten 2.4L on New Years eve and had probably had enough when trapped wide throughout and beaten 7L by Houtzen in the MM 2yo.

Back here in easier grade and puts himself right into this race, and should get a sit on Sista Act, 2 Initialize the danger but think the $3.40 is decent odds.

Race 8: 1 Monsieur Gustave $2.70, nice Saturday grade horse that strung some impressive performances together last spring/summer, won by 9.3L first up her in easier grade, 1st 3.5L Doomben before beating a handy field on an unfavourable surface at Doomben 1.5L, was then 1.4L 4th behind Pepperano (went down and won at Flem Cup week 2 starts later) small let up and aimed at some big money races when beaten 1.3L by Tumbler, 2.2L by Most Important and well down the track at the Gold Coast Magic Millions Day.

Huge drop in class here an should lead on his ear. If he pulls out the fresh run from last prep he should put these away. $2.70

Have also taken the double $9.18 Ubet

 

Best Bets include the 2 above plus one off my favourite horses to back at Murwillumbah

Sunshine Coast Race 1 1 Bring It Home Pops
Sunshine Coast Race 8 1 Monsieur Gustave
Murwillumbah Race 6 5 My Cousin Bossy

And some other bets around the country:

Sunshine Coast
R2: 12 Golden Sheaf $3.00
R4: 6 Namin $3.10
R8: Quin 1,2,11 & Tri 1,2,11,8,4

Ballarat
R1: 2 Dazzling Rain $6.00
R2: 3 Mujaan $5.50
R5: 9 Steel Caps EW $21.00
R10: 3 Jose Wales $5.00

Dubbo
R1: 1 Ellies Encore $6.00, Quin 1,7,9
R4: 6 Miss Fisher $3.70
R7: 12 Double Halo EW $51.00/$14.00, 5 Heza Thief $9.00
R8: 9 Zaphod EW $19.00

Murwillumbah
R1: 1 Dubawi Sniper $4.60
R2: 3 Dream Master $4.00
R3: 7 Toronto Flyer $6.00
R4: 7 Legal Structure $15.00, Quin 2,7,11
R6: 5 My Cousin Bossy $3.20
R7: 6 Davor $6.50

Group 1 Selections Saturday 03.06.2017

G1S

 

 

Group 1 Oaks Day at Doomben after the switch from Eagle Farm and not a meeting that I am overly excited about with a few at the tip of the market limiting the value in a number of races.

 

Will be interesting how the track plays with the rail out 5m as Doomben on a good tends to favour those on the pace and closest to the rails. Could make it harder for those trying to make ground from the back. Selections and bets as usual below:

Ratings Specials:

Venue Selection  Odds 
SR4 5 Mr Marmalade  TF
PR1 6 Scalpal  TF

Best Bets Around The Venues:

Doomben Race 3 1 High Midnight
Doomben Race 4 11 Invincible Express
Doomben Race 8 8 Bonny O’Reilly
Rosehill Race 8 6 Snoopy
Moonee Valley Race 8 15 Overberg
Morphettville Race 3 1 Irish Mint EW
Morphettville Race 7 4 Pepper The Pin

All Bets taken on Wednesday Night/ Thursday Night (a few value runners at Doomben in these as well)

Doomben
Race 1 1 Pardoe  $      4.00 Exact 1&4
4 Snitzepeg  $      3.60
Race 2 6 Skate To Paris  $      6.50
10 Black Mink  $      5.50
Race 3 1 High Midnight  $      3.00
Race 5 5 Prompt Return  $      7.00
11 Invicible Express  $      9.00
Race 6 8 The Virginian  $      6.00
9 Yesterday’s Song EW  $   21.00
Race 7 1 Kenedena  $      5.00 Tri 1,2,6,3,10,15
15 Mia Rosa EW  $   34.00
10 Isnt She Elegent plce  $   21.00
Race 8 8 Bonny O’Reilly  $      4.00 Quin 8,4,6
Rosehill
Race 1 1 Falconic  $   12.00 Quin 1,2,11
2 Junglized  $   21.00
Race 2 Exacta 1/10,7
Race 3 Exacta 1&3
Race 4 5 Mister Marmalade  $      6.00
Race 5 11 Walk The Streets  $   10.00
Race 6 8 Girl Sunday  $      6.00
Race 7 2 Tuchanchoo  $      9.00
Race 8 6 Snoopy  $      6.00 Exacta 6&9
Race 9 14 Dreamforce  $      5.50
Moonee Valley
Race 1 1 Wired  $      4.20
Race 2 5 Grey Street  $      3.70
3 Vital Importance  $   10.00
Race 3 2 Core Beach  $      9.50
Race 5 2 Victory Downs  $      9.50 Quin 2,11,8
Race 8 15 Overberg  $      3.30
Race 9 1 Ken’s Dream  $      5.50
6 Terindah EW  $   19.00
Morphetville
Race 3 1 Irish Mint EW  $   14.00
Race 4 1 Éclair Attack EW  $   21.00
Race 7 4 Pepper The Pin  $   11.00 Quin 4,8,6
Race 8 1 Galaxy Gazer  $      6.00
9 Buried Treasure EW  $   31.00
Belmont
Race 1 6 Scalpal  $      2.80
Race 3 7 Karlakee Miss  $      3.00
Race 7 3 Rock Magic  $      4.00
Race 8 4 Meteroid  $      4.50 Quin 4,2,12

Group 1 Selections 30.05.2017

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Just sharing what goes out in the emails each few days when time permits. Not a bad meeting at Rockhampton today.

Armidale

Race 9: Find it hard to split two here in 12 Shoreline and 7 Maybegrey, 12 Shoreline comes off a freshen up when she was in the best form of her career, strong win at Grafton 1106m Slow 6 and then backed this up with a good win at Grafton on a Heavy 8 (heavy 8 today) put in a high rating run when 2nd last start beaten 0.8L, drops 2kg off that and drawn for a nice run behind the speed.

7 Maybegrey is something of a track (2-1-1-0) and distance (6-4-1-0) specialist, her best performances have come on Heavy and soft tracks especially when she can lead, has one of the most inform riders in NSW on board in Rachael Murray and I think she is well overs at the current odds.

Betting Strategy: I am going to back both here, 2 Units- 7 Maybegrey $9.50 (Luxbet) and 1 unit 12 Shoreline $5.00 (Sportsbet), taking the box exacta as well.

 

Pakenham Synthetic

Race 7: Not a huge fan of betting the sand but like this Pentire staying mare in 4 Shandaara for Robbie Lang, gets 3kg off with the claim to carry 57kg today and has put 2 back to back including this track and trip 2 starts back. She backed that up with another win last start after overcoming trouble at the 200m and I like how she got the job done once getting out. She should put herself into the race again from barrier 8 and be strong at the finish.

Betting Strategy: 1 Unit 4 Shandaara $5.50 (Centrebet)

 

Rockhampton

Race 1: A very intriguing maiden to start here in Rockhampton, Stuart Kendrick is as astute as they come and he has brought one up in Tiz who maybe just be too good here, the NSW form around Le Chiffre might almost be good enough as well but I am having a small play at one of the first starters here in 11 Life’s A Witch, beautifully bred filly and gets the claim of young Corey Bayliss meaning she will go around with 51.5kg, Bayliss has also been riding very well in recent months. No public trials but am aware she is doing very well. Some watch on the stablemate as well.

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EW 11 Life’s A Witch $14.00/ $3.10 (Luxbet)

 

Race 3: Good race for a midweek and all these horses will be playing a part in the QLD country carnivals in coming months. Pretty keen on 4 French Hussler here after strong win here last start when showing a decent turn of foot. Up to 1400m is some slight concern but his highest rating runs have all come her at Rockhampton. Biggest dangers are Worthy Hero who got us the money a few weeks back at huge odds at Ipswich and then flopped badly here last start when 3 wide but a very short favourite. Legal Procedure will be around the money after a torrid run last start and goes well 2nd up.

Betting Strategy: 2.5 Units- 4 French Hussler $3.30 Luxbet

 

Race 5: Taking the punt here that Button knows he has a handy one in 2 Jewel Du Rogue, pulled a plate on debut when uninspiring 9th beaten 11L but they knew what they had when well backed at Casino next start and duly ran away with the win there. Up to Rockhampton and that form looks good enough for this class 1 and Adrian Coome jumps on. Could be a filly to follow. Could make cases for Stella Gris (had issues, no luck last two) 6 He’s All Heart (Southern form very solid) and even Franky Cold Medina

Betting Strategy: 1.5 Units- 2 Jewel De Rogue $7.00 Centrebet

 

Race 6: Consistent gelding on the way up here 4 Dotherighthing, terrific record (14-5-2-0) and goes well fresh (5-3-0-0), last time off a proper spell he won by 4.5L at Townsville, was going that well last time in McConachy took him down to the Sunshine Coast where he ran into Irish Contabulary and had no luck. Should be too good here. Tactician is the one that can upset the apple cart with form around Quatronic and Collinelle in the south east and that is well and truly good enough, Security Belle and Edge Away also have claims at odds

Betting Strategy: 2 Units- 4 Dotherighthing $6.00 Ubet, Tri 4,2,12,10 (100%)

 

Race 7: Since moving up from Metro QLD 6 Conca Del Sogno has been in dazzling form 5 starts have led to 4 wins and a 2nd and with decent margins, comes off 2 strong wins and I expect he continues on his winning ways here after a strong rating win last start. Atarartzi and Duan Major always around the mark in these races and can challenge for the minors.

Betting Strategy: 3 Units- 6 Conca Del Sogno $3.10 (Centrebet) Quin 6,1,7 (300%)