Group 1 Selections 22.04.2017

G1S

 

My tardiness this morning has saved one losing bet anyway!! Good luck today punters with an even card at Caulfield and the G1 Sydney Cup.

Ratings Specials
22/04/17 Venue Selection
SR3 7 Oklahoma Girl
MR2 8 Kapset
AR4 3 Sullivan Bay
SR7 9 Super Maxi
VR5 3 Dormeuse
MR9 12 Sword Of Light
Good Bets
Randwick Race 4 7 Oklahoma Girl
Caulfield Race 8 13 Ken’s Dream
Doomben Race 5 7 Hi I’m Back EW
Morphettville Race 3 1 Counter Pulse

All bets with prices taken Wednesday Night

Randwick
Race 1 3 Silence  $       7.50
Race 2 8 Kawainkini  $    31.00 EW
3 I Thought So  $       2.60
Race 3 7 Oklahoma Girl  $       7.00
1 Sizzling Bullet  $       7.50
Race 4 7 Parogon  $       7.50
Race 5 6 A lot Like Home  $    16.00
2 Spiral  $    10.00
4 Like A Shot  $    12.00
Race 7 6 Nieta  $       2.25
Race 8 3 Big Duke  $       3.50
10 Penglai Pavilion  $       5.50
2 Libran  $    19.00
Race 9 2 Roaring To Win  $       8.50
Caulfield
Race 2 5 Super Haze  $       9.50
Race 3 1 Burning Front  $       1.80
4 Royal Rumble  $    12.00
Race 5 1 Kronos  $    19.00
Race 6 1 French Emotion  $       3.20
6 Tykiato  $    16.00
Race 7 6 Crystal Dreamer  $    10.00
3 Kaepernick  $       7.50
11 Legless Veauve  $    26.00
Race 8 13 Ken’s Dream  $    10.00
Race 9 12 Sword Of Light  $       3.30
8 Think Babe  $       7.50
Doomben
Race 1 5 Cailbottle  $       7.00
1 Emerald City  $       4.40
6 Last Sight  $    10.00
Race 2 5 Cooroi Chase  $       4.40
Race 3 1 Candika  $       2.70
Race 5 7 Hi I’m Back  $    13.00
Race 6 10 All Over Bosanova  $       4.00
Race 7 1 Sir Moments  $       9.50
5 Too Good To Refuse  $       6.50
9 Maryore  $    13.00
Race 8 16 Eventide  $  101.00 EW
Morphetville
Race 1 1 Tabbing  $       5.50
Race 2 4 Rock Status  $       4.60
Race 3 1 Counter Pulse  $       3.70
Race 4 5 Beautiful Flyer  $       7.00
Race 5 3 Royal Rumble  $       4.00
1 Dances On Stars  $       8.50
Race 6 7 Petite Filou  $       4.50
2 Casino Wizard  $    10.00
Race 7 1 Kenedna  $       4.00
Race 8 9 Desert Lashes  $       4.80
7 Vivaldi’s Quest  $    31.00 EW
12 Arizona Wildcate  $    26.00 EW

Group 1 Selections 15.04.2017

Selections for the day,

Ratings Specials

VR4 5 Haski  $           2.25  $  100.00
MR6 3 Hans Holbein  $           1.90  $  100.00
AR5 6 Red Fire Lady  $           7.00  $  100.00
ZR4 1 Smash The Gong  $           5.50  $  100.00
CR6 2 Happy Pilgrim  $           3.70  $  100.00

Good Bets

Randwick
Race 2 6 Burradoo EW
Race 3 1 Acatour
Race 4 8 Hellbent
Race 5 4 Astronomous
Race 9 12 Careless EW
Caulfield
Race 6 1 Hans Holbein
Doomben
Race 4 7 Lady Jetsetter
Race 6 12 Marabel

All Bets with prices taken as of Wednesday night.

Randwick
Race 1 2 Mercurial Lad  $    4.60
6 Supreme Lad  $  51.00
Race 2 4 Cannyscent  $    4.25
6 Burradoo  $  16.00
13 Knit N Purl  $  17.00
Race 3 1 Acatour  $    2.75
Race 4 8 Hellbent  $    4.20
1 Takedown  $    6.00
9 Royal Tudor  $  31.00
Race 5 4 Astronomous  $    3.70
Race 6 1 Invader  $    1.95
Race 7 8 Tavaci (PrePost)  $  15.00
9 English  $    4.40
Race 8 6 Zumbelina  $  11.00
Race 9 1 Fabrizio  $    4.40
8 Sort After  $  14.00
12 Careless  $  26.00
Caulfield
Race 1 3 Lady Selkirk  $    7.00
Race 2 9 Redcore  $  11.00
Race 3 18 Stringer Bell  $  21.00
Race 4 2 Another Coldie  $  11.00
Race 5 1 Scarlett Rain  $  10.00
5 Moonlites Choice  $  21.00
Race 6 1 Hans Holbein  $    2.25
Race 7 12 Lake Como  $    7.50
3 Sebring Sun  $    7.00
13 Tykiato  $  41.00
Race 8 7 Hellova Street  $    4.20
4 Kenjerwood  $  13.00
12 Turbo Miss  $  26.00
Race 9 2 Pornichet  $  17.00
12 Tarquin  $  19.00
Doomben
Race 1 2 Toni May  $    3.20
Race 2 3 Snitz  $    4.00
2 Capital Gain  $    4.60
Race 3 3 Skate To Paris  $    7.50
Race 4 7 Lady Jetsetter  $  11.00
12 Tumblr  $    3.50
Race 6 12 Marabel  $    5.00
13 Kylies Fame  $  41.00
Race 7 1 Sir Moments  $  10.00
14 Fiery Heights  $  10.00
Race 8 10 Slydini  $    6.00
9 Red Letter Day  $  21.00
Oakbank
Race 5 6 Red Fire Lady  $    8.00
Race 7 10 Not So Lady Like  $  10.00
Race 8 10 Bay Road  $  12.00
8 Scratchy Lass  $  61.00

G1S Saturday 08.04.2017

 

 

G1SNo preview today but have attached all bets made on Wednesday according to my ratings. I bet these to a staking plan with best available fixed vs my rated prices. Of course not all punters are going to have as many bets as I do during a Saturday so I will post my ratings specials (available everyday on Facebook @ Group 1 Selections) and then my other standout and value bets for Metro venues and then my full bet list.

Ratings Specials:

08/04/17 Venue Selection  Odds 
SR2 9 Ubatuba  15/4.4
MR5 9 Crystal Dreamer  TF
PR1 4 Snow Lord  TF
AR6 5 Counter Pulse  TF
DR3 5 Captain Punch  TT
MR8 5 Hans Holbein  TF
DR4 3 Bedisguised  TT
PR5 8 More Aces  TF
FR5 6 Brittella  TT

 

Best Bets and Value Saturday Metro

Caulfield
Race 2 4 Life Less Ordinary EW
Race 5 9 Crystal Dreamer
Race 8 5 Hans Holbein
Randwick
Race 1 1 Muraahib
Race 2 9 Utbatuba EW
Race 4 9 Pomelo
Race 5 3 Defcon EW
Race 10 1 Tycoon Tara
Toowoomba
Race 3 2 Helarocity
Race 8 6 Pinch River
Race 9 4 Quatronic
Race 10 7 Privlaka
Morphettville
Race 6 5 Counter Pulse
Race 8 6 Fully Stokes  EW
Race 8 8 Grand Chancellor  EW

 

All Bets with prices taken Wednesday (Syd Cup Pengai Pavilion is a Pre Post bet)

Caulfield
Race 1 1 Plutocracy  $       4.00
5 Shamar  $       7.50
Race 2 4 Life Less Ordinary  $    19.00
14 Yacht Club  $    61.00
Race 3 9 Star Patriot  $    41.00
4 Fragonard  $    12.00
Race 4 1 Wine Bush  $       6.50
Race 5 9 Crystal Dreamer  $       4.80
Race 7 4 French Emotion  $       2.90
1 Leebaz  $    12.00
7 Authoritarian  $    51.00
Race 8 5 Hans Holbein  $       2.90
2 Dark Eyes  $    17.00
Race 9 9 Sullivans Bay  $    15.00
8 Tykatio  $    41.00
1 Tuscan Sling  $    17.00
Toowoomba
Race 1 1 Hingus Rose  $       9.00
2 Ruby Red Heart  $       4.60
7 Skate To Paris  $    15.00
Race 3 2 Helarocity  $       5.50
Race 6 8 Double Dazzle Em Sid  $    81.00
Race 7 6 Dream Finnish  $       7.50
12 Rockabella Boy  $    81.00
3 Emerald City  $    16.00
Race 8 6 Pinch River  $       3.50
Race 9 4 Quatronic  $       9.50
Race 10 7 Privlaka  $       3.50
Sydney
Race 1 1 Muraahib  $       4.20
Race 2 2 Bezel  $       9.00
9 Utbatuba  $    21.00
Race 3 Shoals  $       4.40
5 Villa Carlotta  $    18.00
Race 4 9 Pomelo  $       3.60
12 Heavenly Anna  $    23.00
2 Ziganui  $    34.00
Race 5 6 Tactical Advantage  $       7.50
3 Defcon  $    19.00
1 Saracino  $    15.00
Race 6 3 Bonneval  $       4.60
4 Nurse Kitchen  $       6.00
2 La Diosa  $    16.00
8 Waking Moments  $    41.00
Race 7 6 Harlem $201/ $16.00
Race 8 7 Big Duke  $       2.90
5 Assign  $       7.50
10 Pengai Pavilion  $    21.00
Race 9 17 Foxplay  $       7.00
7 Danish Twist  $    13.00
2 First Seal  $    17.00
Race 10 1 Tycoon Tara  $       8.00
2 Artistry  $    10.00
9 Tempt Me Not  $    34.00
Morphetville
Race 6 5 counter Pulse  $       5.00
Race 8 6 Fully Stokes  $    31.00
8 Grand Chancellor  $    21.00
Quin 6,8,3 Tri 6,8,3,1,11

Group 1 Selections The Championships Day 1

G1S

 

 

Preview below for a great day of racing. Good luck to all!!

Royal Randwick Track Heavy 8- Soft 7

 

Race 1 Widden Stakes Group 3 1100m

Great little race for the 2yo’s to kick off and not much splits a couple of handy 2yo’s here in 2 Condor Heroes and 1 Property. Property was outstanding leading into the Blue Diamond Stakes where he ran well when beaten 5th 2.85L, wet track is some concerns but has class. Condor Heroes has a lot of wraps on him for a horse having his 3rd start and there was plenty of talk of him running a race in the Slipper before missing a crucial lead up to gain entry won his maiden last start on a heavy 9 may give him an edge on this surface. 2 others in the market are Sheikha and Aizee and whilst I think both have chances I have them under the odds and leaning toward the boys.

Suggested Bets: Take your pick 2 Condor Heroes $4.60 or 1 Property $7.00, I am leaning Condor Heroes but maybe play the exacta/quin as well.

Race 2 Carbine Club Stakes Group 3 1600m

Pretty keen on 4 Theanswerismyfriend here, wet track looks to be little concern as the stable booked in early when we were looking at an extremely heavy track and the High Chaparral’s get through it. That bloodline as well as his super impressive walkover at Flemington points to him doing even better at the 1600m in my opinion and I think he is one of the better bets on the card.

Expected a little more from 5 Acatour last start and he has been below his spring runs so far this prep and I am thinking he may not be appreciating these wet tracks. Rates ok up to the mile here but I am risking him until he gets on top of the ground.

Been a push around for 2 Eusebio who has a tremendous record (5-3-2-0) but had been going around the provincials before storming late to win the Canberra Guineas in an impressive performance. James Doyle is on here and is the danger horse to my top rater.

One that has not rated as well for me but I think can run a race is  6 Mr Sneaky,  beat home Theanswerismyfirend (unlucky) last time they met and in a smart stable and the High Chap/ Danehill points to the wet track and mile no problem. Keep safe in exotics

Suggested Bets: 4 Theanswerismyfriend looks a good bet $3.80

 

 

Race 3 Chairman’s Stakes Group 2 2600m

Tricky little race for the Sydney Cup horses here and the market looks a little bit suffocated by 1 Big Duke. He rates, really strongly for me here after a getting the win in the stewards room last start (I am still cursing Craig Williams)  if he stays at that level than it is hard to see them tossing him here. Not entirely over the moon with the $2.70

Another Team Llyod Williams horse looks the danger here in 3 Aloft, ran his best race in Australia by some way last start when getting the job done over 1800m, big step up in distance here but if he finds his best European form in this he will be hard to hold out. Price is still a little skinny compared to what I have him rated at.

Bit of odds about the kiwi 7 Rock On, consistent 4yo gelding on the up (20-4-5-1) who looks to go on all surfaces although the sting out maybe favourable to all these NZ stayers. Ratings show a stayer on the rise and a good winner of the 2500m NZ St Leger last start. Some hope.

6 Polarisation’s Euro form hardly sets the formguide alight but I doubt a man as shrewd as Charlie Appleby brings a horse halfway around the world for a haircut, Kerrin McEvoy on a stayer is also a big positive, the horse has won at this trip (1-1-0-0) and seem to like soft ground (4-3-0-0) and whist there is nothing in the video form to suggest he will be winning this my suggestion to all exotic players would be to keep him safe.

Suggested Bet: 1 Big Duke small win bet, tricky race.

 

Race 4 Country Championships Final 1400m

I will not go into too much detail in the only non-group race of the day but I do like one here dropping well back in grade in 15 Pumpkin Pie, gets onto what looks to be a better surface and drops back from G2 level. Will be storming late the obvious danger but very short, and I do like 6 Careless Choice going forward.

Suggested Bet: Small win bet 15 Pumpkin Pie, Tri 15,3,6,4,5

 

Race 5 PJ Bell Stakes Group 3 1200M

Bet of the day here in 3 Rainment, she was a Saturday Special 2 starts back when bolting in and this race doesn’t look a whole lot harder. Stays at 1200m, the track looks soft at best again and I see her as the winner here providing she runs up to last start. I took $4.60 early doors and she keeps getting backed to the point she is a little short now. If she gets to $2.70 or better come race time she is a decent bet.

12 Zumbelina looks the one to beat here from the Chris Waller yard and coming off a soft trial win, this is a step up in grade but goes well fresh.

7 Samantha was solid behind Rainment last start but unsure how she turns the tables, likes this track and soft she will be around the mark again

Bit of value here in 6 Sweet Sherry, and her wet runs jump out in the formguide (2-2-0-0), very good at Flemington last start should get a decent ride from the barrier. Knockout chance at $15.00+

Suggested Bet: 3 Rainment at $2.70+, 6 Sweet Sherry EW $15.00+

 

Race 6 Sires Group 1 1400m

First Group One of the day and a cracking race to pull apart. 14 Frolic was excellent running second in the golden slipper and has been in top form all preparation, the wet track is no issue and 1400m seems to suit, awkward draw but she will be going back anyways, deserving favourite.

Not much between Frolic and 15 Tulip in the betting and not much between them in the ratings either, thought Tulip’s run in the Golden Slipper was impressive on ground that didn’t, David Hayes has said she will be better over more ground and gets her chance here. She will be there at the finish

One at rough odds here in 4 Veranillo, horse has had genuine excuses all prep and was vetted at the barrier before a fair run when making some ground late. I do not believe he appreciated the truly heavy track that day and on an improving surface I think he can run a race at decent odds. Gets the best jockey in the world in Joao Moreira on and should be able to settle closer to the speed from the draw, rough ew chance at $21.00

Also give chances to 3 Diamond Tathagata, 8 Invader (been well supported) and 13 Summer Passage

Suggested Bets: 14 Frolic, 4 Veranillo EW, Tri 14,15,4,8,3,9

 

Race 7 Australian Derby Group 1 2400m

Truly believe this is the race of the day and we will see if 2 Gingernuts is a flash in the pan or something truly special as he shoots for 5 in a row. His NZ Derby win rated strongly and returned ratings figures with me equal to Mongolian Khan and above Tavago, that figure dipped a little on a truly heavy Randwick track when his class got him a win that was quite soft in the end. I got in early in the Pre Post before the Rosehill Guineas after following him right through since his Avondale Guineas win and providing he can hold his form at the end of what has been a long prep he should be good enough here. Short enough here now though.

3 Inference the obvious danger but I do believe he had everything to suit last start when coming off a strong Randwick Guineas win, up to 2000m, on a wet track he has seemed to appreciate all through his career. Just got left behind when Gingernuts sprinted, his run in the VRC Derby over this trip was full of merit when desperately unlucky. Hard to see him turning the tables on the fav but if GIngernuts has had one run to many than Inference could be the one.

I wasn’t too keen on 4 Jon Snow in this race after his solid 3rd in the NZ Derby as I think 2000m is his go but after watching the way he won with ease last start he has come back into calculations. Not overly keen on the price and think he should be double figure odds but bookies and punters have been caught out with the NZ form and I believe an overreaction has taken place. Solid place chance.

1 Prized Icon has had his colours lowered a little after finishing last prep on a high note winning the VRC Derby at this trip, been mixing his form a little but did look to be back near his best last start. His best is good enough but just have reservations about him producing that here today. He can surprise in this race but I will be including in exotics only.

Throw in 8 Ruthven as well, his form in Victoria has been solid enough and I think he will appreciate the trip, should be forward in the race which is always an advantage, $19.00 is not a bad price.

Anaheim has claims on an improving track as well.

Suggested Bets: 2 Gingernuts Win, 8 Ruthven EW, F4: 2.3/2,3,1,4/1,4,7,8,11,5/1,4,7,8,11,5

 

Race 8 TJ Smith Stakes Group 1 1200m

I have gone with 13 Astern on top providing he starts (camp worried about a truly heavy track) I think he was the best of his generation last prep in Sydney and believe he could go next level against the older horses 1st Up, some risk with such a long break between runs and an aborted Melb trip but $6.50 lets you find out with a decent reward. He will be scratched if not ready for this.

Chances to Russian Revolution (brilliant 1st up) Chautauqua (below his best this prep buts Chat) and 8 Voodoo Lad ( brilliant 1st up, wet no issue)

Suggested Bets: 13 Astern If he starts, 8 Voodoo Lad EW $17.00

 

Race 9 Doncaster Mile Group 1 1600m

As always this race is very, very tricky. A lot of formlines converging and this year more so than ever, to be honest I have a pre-post bet Spectroscope @ $51.00 and I have not been really able to find anything in my ratings to get excited about. Will run quickly through my ratings.

2 Le Romain, tough as teak, G1 winner this prep and goes all conditions, not fully convinced Randwick mile and at the top of the weights.

3 Palentino, have had to forgive the horror show we witnessed this track and trip in the Epsom in the spring but if he pulls out another drunken shopping trolley performance could be in trouble. In great form in Victoria and not a bad form race he won last start, 1600m is his go and also has no qualms on wet ground

11 Mcreery, has the Waller Doncaster feel about him this horse, less than 2L off them last prep in the 2 feature mile races in both Sydney and Melbourne, gets through any ground and gets Kerrin McEvoy, looks hard to beat here and the one I am leaning to.

15 Hey Doc, In top form in Melbourne and now has to bring it up against these older horses, puts himself into his races on pace, very awkward draw for him to do that and not entirely convinced about him on a Soft 7/ Heavy 8

16 Antonio Giuseppe, tough horse down in the weights, gets 2000m+, likes it wet, and a cosy draw, a few ticks but the horse has changed direction mid prep and not something I usually like seeing, Waller is a genius though and he may be able to get the job done.

19 Spectroscope, been with this horse since his 1st trial win Australia and looks to have a touch of class, finds himself thrown in at the weights down on the minimum although he has drawn extremely wide but does have Joao Moreira on to help overcome it. I am on at the big odds early and think he can be giving this a big shake.

14 I Am A Star, this little girl is a star and would want to be meeting and giving weight to a lot of these older horses, cant doubt her prep and her last 2 wins have been simply brilliant. Not entirely convinced about her on rain affected ground but her win last start was proper G1 rating. If it was WFA I would almost have her on top.

Suggested Bets: Happy with early ticket Spectroscope, win bet 11 McCreery $12.00, small EW I Am A Star $18.00

Race 10 Adrian Knox Stakes Group 3 2000m

Not a race can get entirely stoked about, even bunch of fillies and a quaddie killer for me last year after kicking off with Tavago!! Have liked what I have seen from 3 Mull Over so far and a beautifully bred filly (High Chaparral x Zabeel mare) think she has better races ahead of her the way she put them away in her Newcastle maiden win last start, some nerves about this race coming around too soon

Like the Waterhouse/ Bott filly in 5 Almalita, puts herself right into her races and should be able to lead them up here and hard to get past, ran well enough behind Tiamo Grace last prep at Flemington.

Also like 4 High Impulse (good win last time, 2 Perfect Rhyme and give a rough hope to 12 Face Like Thunder at big odds $35.00

Suggested Bets: 3 Mull Over, 12 Face Like Thunder EW

 

Best Bets

Race 2: 4 Theanswerismyfriend

Race 5: 3 Rainment

 

Quaddie numbers: 2,3,1/13,14,1,2,8/19,15,14,3,2,11,10/3,4,12,2,1,5,9/

Group 1 Selections Saturday Feature Race Preview

G1S

Flemington Track: Good Weather: Overcast

Race 4 Sires Produce Stakes G2 1400m

Tough little race this with heavily backed favourite Eshtiraak coming through 3 straight wins although away from city Saturday grade. Puts himself right into the race from the beautiful draw and being a Street Cry should lap up this trip, well found in the market however at almost even money.

Aspect was good again in the G1 Blue Diamond and raced like this trip would suit especially at Flemington, takes a little while to get balanced but has a great turn of foot, little bit of value at the $10.00 mark and goes in everything.

2 Colesberg is the one I am keen on here, David Payne does not often bring them down from Sydney and this colt has run fairly on two very heavy tracks in Sydney, I think he can run better on top of the ground, draws well for this distance and Hugh Bowman on is a positive booking. At $11.00 he is worth a small bet on a decent surface.

Can concede chances to 7 Toga Picta and 5 Groundbreak.

Suggested bet: EW: 2 Colesburg, Quin: 3,2,1

 

Race 5 Kewney Stakes G2 1400m

3yo fillies to go around here and a very good race, expect some handy form to come out of this heading to Sydney. 2 I Am A Star rates on top here and she is a little star!! Super tough and super consistent, form around Chautauqua and Super Cash last start and Chat ran Le Romain to a nose in G1 company and Super Cash lines up in the G1 Newmarket on the card. She is well found and worse than even money with some bookies but I cannot knock her here. Drawn perfectly here for a soft run and should be winning.

5 Oregon’s Day’s run was better than it looked last start when raced keenly, wide and hung out yet was still only beaten a neck! If she does half as much wrong today she will be in with a big chance. Drawn to get a nice run here in that lane 1-5 horses off the fence and just needs a bit of luck to get a crack at them.

Not Super keen on anything outside those two, Ellicazoom worked very well through the week and was tough to get past last start and Keneddna looks a nice hope for the future.

Suggested Bet: Hard to tip against the fav, maybe a 5 Oregon’s Day the place @ $2.50 and Tri 2/5,3,4,8

 

Race 6 Schweppervescence Trophy G3 1600

Fillies and mares do battle here in another interesting little race, Miss Rosed De Lago should be able to control the race from her draw after no luck and being trapped 3 wide both runs this time in and is hard to get past if she does so, bit of a drop back in class for her here.

Pretty keen on one here at nice overs in 3 Lady Selkirk, in an unfashionable stable but I think Matty Williams has a bright future, comes off an average looking run at Caulfield but has struggled at the tighter Caulfield and Moonee Valley tracks before. Back to her favourite track (4-2-0-1) and unbeaten this distance (3-3-0-0) and track and distance (2-2-0-0) I think she can position up nicely here and at around the $14.00 mark she is a great ew chance.

Behind these two there is a host of chances including Circular (Jo Moreira, soft draw) Rising Hope and Pure Pride (gets back, runs home, track against) as these fillies and mares races are often even contests.

Suggested Bet: Took $21.00 earlier in the week 3 Lady Selkirk but the $14.00 (Centrebet) is still great value.

Race 7 Newmarket Handicap G1 1200m

Found this race awkward to analyse, Speith came out on top of my ratings on the strength of his last 2 runs here at Flemington, but has never been one of mine as even when he wins he needs luck! How the track plays early will give us a guide to how this race pattern plays out, the inside has been the place to be even down the straight the last couple of meetings here but watch to see what they do in Race 3 for some sort of guide. Like I said Spieth on top here and still a little bit of value here at current prices, don’t lock in as he may drift if support comes for the two 3yo’s late. He is either perfectly drawn from gate 1 or they get off the rails or got to the outside and it maybe sticky. I would love to see him muscle his way through a gap today to show he is willing to do that. Cant knock his last two runs in top grade.

Illustrious Lad was hard on speed in the Lightning which is amazing considering he bucked at the start! 1200m was always going to suit this horse a little better and drops nicely in weight (5.5kg) he will be tough at the finish but just have a class query with him.

Well these 3yo sprinters have been talked up all season and it is now time to show it on the track versus the older sprinters, I thought Star Turn had a nice run on speed last start and then was swamped late, down in the weights here he should be able to be on speed here and have every chance, I do have slight question marks at a tough 1200m.

Extreme Choice was not even to line up before Flying Artie was scratched, but hey who would want to waste a booking of Joao Moreira, especially at the moment. Got back a little further than expected last start and charged at them late, I think they would want to be a little closer here but the draw makes that a little tough unless they go to the outside fence or the middle. Horse has the potential to be a star but his run in the Coolmore in the spring raised some questions. He would not surprise me at all if comes over the top of them but not overly keen on the price.

Keeping it short with Terravista, at his best he can beat anything, his run last start was exceptional, maybe the overs in the race. Include in everything.

Suggested Bet: I am just watching this one, if you like Speith he does rate well here, Terravista at that price maybe a small play but I am happy to watch what should be a very good race.

 

Race 8 Australian Cup G1 2000m

Another tough race for me to get a read on, especially the way the track played last week where it was tough to make ground more than 1-4 horses wide off the fence. This makes it crucial where race favourites Jameka and Humidor settle in the run. Or we could just get a beautiful even surface and they win from everywhere! Word is Tom Melbourne goes forward again and if so it should at least mean we get a very tempo, I think Ecuador will also push on as may Stratum Star, Awesome Rock, Tally and maybe even Boom Time.

Makes it tough to see where Jameka slots in unless they do some work early to go and sit outside the lead or in the 1-1. Else they go back and try and run over them, nothing wrong with her runs this prep and looks to be building to this, needs to be winning this today if the International trip is still on the agenda, not a stellar Australian Cup field. Rates well just a bit unsure where she gets to in the run.

Humidor rates on top due to his two barnstorming runs since joining Weir, but Darren still has not got his head issues sorted just yet. When I followed the horse in NZ he was known to run in AND hang out when under pressure and he has run in both times this prep. I think he will have to come from back here today and those little issues make me believe the price at the moment is a little bit unders.

I normally don’t like betting away from the top 2 in my markets but just think The United States maps so well for this race. Barrier 4 gives him some options and 2000m is his pet trip, loomed to win last start when his fitness just gave out at the end and a similar run here makes him very tough to beat. I like the price

Smaller chance to Exospheric (great last start, got home hard) 1 Stratum Star (fittest in race, on pace, will be hard to run past).

Suggested Bet: Small win bet The United States, Tri and F4: 10,11,3,6,1

 

 

Rosehill Track: Soft 7 Weather: Overcast

Race 5 Sky High Stakes G3 2000m

Focus on this races as I think it will be a fair form race for the rest of the carnival. Antonio Giuseppe rates on top here at around the $2.50 mark but gee you would be brave taking odds on for him in this class of race, impressive run 1st up at an unsuitable trip and jumps straight up to the 2000m, no surprise if he wins but not at that price.

Libran has rated well all prep in races he could never win and finally gets a suitable race here, cut out of the track helps him and likes this trip (5-3-1-0) was terrific last prep and I give him some chance here 3rd up.

Tavago showed us glimpses of his 3yo Derby form last prep and the rain affected track suits him as well, I think he will be better next start but is a little value.

Magic Hurricane has been brilliant his last two starts in races he couldn’t win, 3rd up here and he will be rattling home again, is ready to win.

Old Grand Marshall could get home into a placing and Lasqueti Spirit was massive last start (how much did that take out)

Suggested Bet: Fav is very, very short maybe small ew Libran at a price, Save Tri 9/5,3,2

 

Race 7 Coolmore Classic G1 1500m

This is a cracking race for the fillies and mares and very even across the board.

Omei Sword comes out rating on top for me but gee she really needs to come out and show the hype is justified. Only won 1 race in stakes grade and comes up fav against a handy field of older horses and a couple of very good 3yo’s. I don’t see gate 19 being a big a issue as some as they usually get of the rail at Rosehill when rain affected anyway. Her drama will only being if they all run to the outside like Randwick last start but I doubt that will be the case. Looks to have a good speed here to set the race up for her and at around the $4.00- $5.00 mark it is good enough to have a bet.

7 La Bella Diosa couldn’t have done anymore last start, plenty wrote off her NZ form before the race and then wrote of the run after the race with saying the Heavy track was in her favour. I think she will be a lot better filly on top of the ground. Impressive record (7-5-0-1) and already a G1 winner in NZ where I think the 3yo form is very decent this year. Tricky draw if the better going is off the fence and maybe looking for all of the 1600m-2000m already but I expect her to run very well here. Been support for her, I took $13.00 and into around the $8.00- $9.00 this morning.

Dixie Blossoms had the perfect run last start and deadest blew them away, not sure she will get that controlled tempo here today but still rates pretty nicely, not bad odds for a horse that won by 7L last start, she will have her supporters.

If John Thompson can get First Seal to win this first up off a setback he is a magician, high class mare, just think she has a bit too much against her but is out to a huge price. Maybe some value for exotics

In Her Time is in terrific form and can do no more than she has done, she is super tough, big ask against these better mares but she is a great price.

Others include Euro Angel, Danish Twist, Shillelagh (tiny win bet at $71.00) and Global Glamour.

Suggested Bet: Win bet Omei Sword, has to win this, smaller bet La Bell Diosa, Tri 14,7,2,1,3

Other Bets for the day:

Flemington Race 2 10 Hursley
Flemington Race 9 12 Rocket Tommy
Rosehill Race 3 3 Coruscate
Rosehill Race 4 2 Exceeds EW
Rosehill Race 4 15 La Chica Rosa EW
Rosehill Race 6 9 Foxplay
Rosehill Race 8 2 Arod
Doomben Race 2 2 Pah Terie
Doomben Race 3 4 Pinch River
Doomben Race 4 15 Miss Arabella plce
Doomben Race 6 8 Cantbuybetter
Doomben Race 8 13 Courtza King
Morphettville Race 9 Hannukkah Gold
Ascot Race 2 3 Undisclosed
Ascot Race 5 7 Majinka

 

Group 1 Selections Saturday Features Preview

G1S

Flemington

Race 5 Frances Trassady Stakes Group 3 1400m

Tricky little race to kick of the features at Flemington but I am buttering up on one that let me down a bit last start in Diamond Baroness, she has been up for a long time but I imagine they will have her right for this race chasing some black type to end the prep. Put herself right into the race last start before nabbed late but does drop 3.5kg to the limit her at 54kg, goes forward again and if Dwayne gives her a cushy ride she can win at nice odds. Another I expect to run well at EW odds is 7 Deja Blue, my ratings tell me she is a young mare on he up having her first go at these better mares, deep into her prep and she does have a tricky gate but I think she can get some cover and she has a powerful sprint. Worth a risk at the $12.00 mark. A couple of better mares resuming are Rising Romance and Happy Hannah, both have raced in better grade than this and neither would surprise but cannot tip either with confidence, exotic players keep safe.

 

Race 6 TAB Rewards Stakes Group 3 1400m

Will not focus on this race too much as I have it as a messy, messy race and very even. For what it is worth I did have a nibble at the early odds 1 Kenjerwood $6.50 and 3 Hooked $19.00 but not a race I want to tip into.

 

Race 7 Australian Guineas Group 1 1600m

I think this is an excellent renewal of this race and a very even race as well. For the record I have them rated Hey Doc, Prized Icon, Divine Prophet, Mortons Fork, Inside Agent. I do have Hey Doc on top off the strength of his last start win against a similar field but I am not keen about the price he has gone up here, I always believe that gate 1 is an advantage but you also have to use it and Luke Currie will need to be positive to ensure he is no further back than two pairs or the horse could find himself in some severe traffic. Also have a few question marks about the mile with a strong tempo which I believe this race will be. Whilst I would not talk anyone out of backing the horse there is little edge for me at the price.

I think Prized Icon is tremendous value at around the $10.00 mark, has won twice over the 1600m from 3 starts and in those two wins has defeated both Divine Prophet and Lasqueti Spirit. I expect him to roll forward into a beautiful spot from the draw and will be one of the strongest late.

One I like in this race is 11 Inside Agent, dangerous move in backing a horse on what he can do against what he will do but to me he looks suite here at the mile with what seems to be a solid tempo and a wide draw as the horse hates being inside of other horses. He is still green as grass and wants to look about but the blinkers come off today and may help to settle. At around the $30.00 mark he could be the blowout runner.

Winning chances to Divine Prophet, Motrons Fork, Land Of Plenty and Seaburge I will be going 6-7 wide in my quad bit does look to be some value in Prized Icon.

 

 

Randwick

We wont focus on Randwick as much as what I would have liked on what looks like a brilliant card as I have concerns they may not even finish the meeting on a Heavy 9 with further rain predicted.

 

Race 5 Canterbury Stakes Group 1 1300m

Wet track really throws a spanner in the works here with most having exposure but with differing levels of success. Chautauqua is firm favourite but I thought he was very disappointing last start against a far weaker field, has won a TJ Smith on the soft but only has seen one genuine heavy track. I cannot just have him off his last start performance. Quite keen Music Magnate here, won his G1 up in QLD last start and after a poor run in the Stradbroke looks to have come back well with two impressive trial wins and soft win last start at G2 level has won well on heavy going as well as soft going and if he finds the front here he will make it difficult for the backmarkers to get past.

Le Romain and Hauraki are both battle hardened types who were winning against the best last prep, I concede chances to both but would prefer if they were striking this race 3rd or 4th up. Believe both can run well here but both will be even harder to beat next start

Ugo Foscolo is the most interesting runner here, one of the best 3yo’s in NZ last prep he won a strong G1 against Savile Row and Heroic Valour last prep and that reads solid form. Trialled up well winning by 7L latest and like the kiwi filly last start they NZ’ers just get through this ground. I would go as far if he runs in the Randwick Guineas he wins but so hard to do against these older horses at WFA, keep safe

 

Race 7 Randwick Guineas Group 1 1600m

I see this as a race of few winning chances but a genuine heavy track can soon put an end to that theory. Man From Uncle has really taken me by surprise this prep, but looking at his last prep he was not far off the better ones. Been very strong late in his last two wins against these colts and is on the Guineas/ Derby paths so I imagine there is improvement to come. Genuine heavy is a query although Sire stats read like it will improve Uncle Mo’s offspring. If he runs up to his last two starts  I find it hard to think something beats him.

Everyone is Australia wants to tip Comin Through and I can see why, I have been following the horse since he won his 1st start at 20-1 and to me he looked to be every bit as good as his ½ brother Criterion. However for a horse of his class I did expect more from his last two starts, he was very safely held last start in the Hobartville and horses like Inference were going as well as him late when I thought he would be doing his best work. Has potential and I still think the Rosehill Guineas is his race but believe he is under the odds here.

Those are the two I see as genuine winning chances but if there is a blowout it may come from the likes of Inference, Acatour, Malaise or Harpers Choice in that order but I will not be going that wide.

 

 

 

Like these as main hopes today

Flemington

Race 2: 2 Heatherly

Race 5: 8 Diamond Baroness

Race 7: 1 Prized Icon EW, 11 Inside Agent EW, Tri & F4: 4,1,2,5,11

Race 9: 2 Knowable

 

Randwick

Race 3: 1 Scarlett Rain, Quin 1 & 4

Race 4: 2 Savoureaux EW

Race 5: 4 Music Magnate

Race 7: 2 Man From Uncle, Quin 2,5,6

 

Eagle Farm

Race 2: 1 Hi I’m Back

Race 4: 12 Vaulting Ambition

 

Morphettville

Race 2: 1 Silvera

Race 7: 3 Beerzatbernz EW

 

Ellerslie

Race 4: 7 Royal Success

Race 7: 12 Glass Slipper EW Race 8: 7 Splurge EW

Race 9: 7 Gingernuts, 6 John Snow EW, Tri & F4: 6,7,1,2,3

G1S Weekend Preview 25.02.2017

G1S

Caulfield

Race 2: Zeditave Stakes 1200m G3

Nice 3yo race for the colts to kick off the day in Melbourne and a few formlines meeting here a well. Adelaide horse Benz was impressive in the spring and finds himself in a tough race first up and should look to go forward from the good gate. Yulong Yongxing was desperately unlucky last start in Adelaide but that was lengths below this grade, really liked the run of Gratwick last start at Moonee Valley in a similar grade of race here, Craig Williams is on and he will put himself right into the race up in speed. The two I have settled on are 5 Into Orbit who is building a terrific record and is back in grade from a last start 2nd in a smart field and 4 Gratwick EW who seems to be some nice overs.

Race 4: Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m G2

I see this as a race in two between the Hayes yard filly Fuhryk and Team Weir’s tough filly in Jennifer Lynn, Fuhryk could not have been more impressive her last start storming over the top of them, this is her first go at this trip though and that is a query for me. Jennifer Lynn won 3 on end last prep and finished her prep with a solid 3rd against some well performed colts. Unlucky to miss 1st up at an unsuitable trip and down the straight and was tight for room last start, however she gets back out to her favourite trip here and whilst I prefer her round a bend at Flemington I think she is some nice overs in this race. Will play her win only and save on the Exacta with Fuhryk.

Race 5: Futurity Stakes Stakes 1400m G1

I very nearly went away from Black Heart Bart but just cannot tip against the horse. However I will not be taking the very short odds about him either. If Turn Me Loose improves off his Orr Stakes run then I think he will be very tough to run down, he maybe just looking for the 1600m now though. I think these two will run 1st and 2nd but I don’t believe there will be much between them. I thought Ecuador wold have been very tough to beat in the Peter Young over 1800m if they went there and he should be around the mark here again, I also think He’s Our Rokki can improve as well at decent odds. Big watch on the ex- Japanese horse Tosen Stardom, he will improve off whatever he does today.

Race 6: Peter Young Stakes 1800m G2

Another tough betting race and very little separates my top 3. Humidor rates on top but not a lot of value at his current price although $5.50- $6.00 was around on Wednesday, The United States rates really well and I am pretty keen on him at his current price, he is a proven WFA horse against Humidor who we don’t know will measure up and Jameka who looks more a 2400m type. Watch on a couple of stayers fresh here in Tally and Exospheric, whilst I don’t think they will be winning I think they maybe up around the minor placings late and will only improve.

Race 7: Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m G1

Wont find a more even bunch of 2yo’s I don’t think in a race where luck will play a huge part. I have my top 5 rated together closely in order of: Catchy, Property, Pariah, Roomooz & Tulip and will be working with these. I have settled on Property for a couple of reasons, providing he jumps well he should find the perfect position from gate 2, Joe Moreira is an aggressive rider who likes to put his horses right into the race and I think that is what is needed here, Catchy is going to need luck from out there and she is an outstanding filly but just at the price I have here slight unders. Everyone has been tipping Roomooz as their value horse and that has seen his price come in a but I still think there is some value there at the $15.00+ mark. Have settled on Property but maybe the Quinella 11,1,4 and the Tri and F4: 11,1,4,15,13,12 could be some nice value as well.

Race 8: Oakleigh Plate 1200m G1

I found this race to be a nightmare needle in a haystack job  and I couldn’t possibly tip anything with confidence, my ratings tell me the winner will come from Hellbent, I Am A Star, Extreme Choice and Sheidel but cannot put one on top. Maybe Sheidel EW is the safest play but good luck punters!!

 

Randwick

Race 6: Surround Stakes 1400m G2

What a race this is!! Some of the best fillies in the country (and 1 from NZ!!) line up here in what could be one of the best form races of the Autumn. Global Glamour was tough as nail last start when setting a cracking tempo and kicking in the straight to just hang on in the closest of photos, back up to 1400m today and a softish track she will have to be every bit as tough today. I do have concerns that she has only seen the paddock for 2-3 weeks since August last year and this can take its toll on young horses. Almost running Golden Glamour down last start was Foxplay, talking through kick as I was very keen on her in that race she was brilliant giving away a huge start but sprinting hard to just miss, have concerns about that run and its effect on her here 2nd up but if she settles closer she will be a player again. I have no doubt Omei Sword is the best filly in this race, but she has had a number of setbacks this prep and hence we are getting some odds about her. I personally don’t think Chris Waller would be starting one of his young starts if he did not believe she could be competitive. There is one here at huge odds that not many will agree with me on and that is Pumpkin Pie, she is coming out of country form but her run last start was massive, forced to race very wide on pace she just had far too much class, big step up here but loves this distance (2-2-0-0) this track (3-1-1-0) and also loves the sting out (Soft-Heavy 2-2-0-0) I think at the $31.00 she is worth a smaller ew spec. Chances don’t end there but we will have a look at La Bella Diosa as well, dominant G1 winner in NZ and having her first start here in Aus, she will love the rain around and she may measure right up to these, do not leave her out of Tri’s F4’s and quaddie bets.

Race 7: Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m G1

Not a lot to say here, Winx should win, Hartnel should run well again, I think Endless Drama, Libran and Magic Hurricane fight out 3rd and 4th. Wet track may bring WInx back to the field but until Hartnell is ridden on pace and tries to put a gap on her he will not beat her. I think they will be saving that tactic until the Queen Elizabeth so expect another barrier trial race today.

 

Race 8: Guy Walter Stakes 1400m G2

Another good race for the fillies and mares here and I think there is a little bit of value as well, Danish Twist is a mare that always needs a bit of luck in her runs but when she gets that she is right up with best of them, soft ground is a bonus for her, First Seal is back for one last prep and will be interesting to see what she does today, won 2nd up last start and looked in for a good prep but was below her best in the G1 Myer, one I am pretty keen on at the price is Shillelagh, looked outstanding value last start when opening at $10.00 and backed right in to $4.50 before she was unfortunately put out of the race by a falling horse. Soft track brings her right back into this and decent value again. Will be playing Danish Twist and Shillelagh.

 

 

 

G1S Selections Weekend Preview

Big day of racing around the country and we will have a look at the feature races as well as races that hold some interest as well as value.

Rosehill Race 5 TAB Silver Slipper Stakes 1100m- Good race to look at from a Golden Slipper point of view. She Will Reign is a deadest flyer and has come up here at Winx like odds, has been impressive in trials and this is her first start past 1000m, I think she may have enough legs to win this but the big watch will be late as two horses I can see coming at her late will be Khan and Veranillo. Not a race I am keen big into but if you had to have a bet maybe something small on Veranillo and save on the exacta 5/1,2

Rosehill Race 6 Hobartville Stakes 1400m- Really nice race here although is a little tricky. Believe 4 Comin Through has the most upside of these but and although he will even better once he gets t0 1600m he may just have enough class to pinch this. Inference maybe a little bit of value, desperately unlucky in the Victoria Derby and his trials have been very good and goes well fresh. Will be playing those two.

Rosehill Race 7 Millie Fox Stakes 1300m- Almost impossible race her with so many formlines and so many mares in form. Those that like a bit of value maybe interested in 3 French Emotion at a big price, signs of being in season when she put herself right into the race but didn’t finish off. Goes well 2nd up and worth a smaller EW spec.

Flemington Race 4 Talindert Stakes 1100m- 2yo’s down the straight is not my favourite race to bet into but I thought 9 Time Awaits was very impressive behind the talented Formality last start, might be some value around 2 Groundbreak as well and whilst I wont be going crazy in this race they are the two I can entertain. The Hayes runners look like big dangers.

Flemington Race 5 The Vanity 1400m– Smallish field of fillies here with the classier ones resuming. Legless Veuve was pretty dominant against the boys last start and looks able to repeat that here again, $3.50 around at the moment and that looks a fair price, one I liked in early markets was 2 Nurse Kitchen and whilst I think she was value at the $8.00 I cant tip her now at her current price around the $5.00 mark

Flemington Race 6 CS Hayes Stakes 1400m- Whilst my ratings have the 3 class colts in Hey Doc, Mortons Fork and Seaburge all near the top I see a bit of value 6 Inside Agent and 11 Land Of Plenty, punters have found them and they have been backed in from their $26.00 and $21.00 prices respectively I still think they are overs in a very tight races. Play those  5 in exotics and I would be expecting a return.

Flemington Race 8 Lightning Stakes 1000m– I found this race almost impossible with some fans firmly in the 3yo sprinters corners. I still have a few doubts at the moment and can find little value in their current prices. I am happy to watch what seems a great race but if you want to have a bet in the race 5 Illustrious lad EW and Quarterback EW maybe safe plays as we know they will be there somewhere at the end. I am personally using this race as a guide for future races.

Eagle Farm Race 8 3yo Hcp 1200m- Out of all the races I analysed this weekend this was one I found the most interesting, so many of QLD better 3yo’s and also have the ex Waterhouse/ Bott 3yo filly Sylpheed having her first start in QLD. Boom filly 9 All Over Bosanova puts her unbeaten record on the line with her first start in the city but she has really been thrown in the deep end here after winning as she likes at the provincials. Oink, Bold Shot, Rich Affair, Royal Tithe and a few other make it a ripping race on paper. For the record I am keen on Sylpheed who goes like a bomb fresh and her Melb spring form was very strong at black type level. Smaller saver on the unbeaten filly but this is a huge step.

Ellerslie Race 3 1500m- May look like a non descript race at Ellerslie but there is a horse in this race that was robbed of a large part of its career due to injury. The Murray Baker team brought 4 Collaborate over for the Melb Spring of 2015 for the Victoria Derby but he jarred up badly in the Stutt Stakes and injuries have hampered the horse since. He is part owned by Arrowfield and surprisingly they have kept their share even though the horse has been gelded so they must see some racing potential. He is a dead ringer to It’s A Dundeel and I am hoping we see him back to his best today. One to follow to see if he can reach the potential he showed early.

Ellerslie Race 6 Avondale Guineas 2000m– Traditional leadup to the NZ Derby and this race is also worth watching for Australian punters as a number of these horses are also entered in the ATC Derby at Randwick. Very tough races and the Heavy track has made it even tougher. Sacred Elixir is a very firm favourite and rightly so but keep and eye on the Baker Team colt Mongolian Wolf and one at huge odds worth a place bet maybe 8 Disturbance