Group 1 Selections Wednesday 22.11.2017

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Four selections to go around to start the new month, a nice EW bet at Ascot among them. Looking forward to all the form coming out for the excellent Ascot meeting on Saturday.

22.11.2017

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Group 1 Selections End Of Month Review.

G1S

 

Very tough month and a little disappointing as probably didn’t take full advantage of what was a successful week at Flemington. Despite that we saw a good bounce back this week with fewer bets and some nice winners

Currently tracking at 13% Profit On Turnover for the year which is a little below the 15% annual target. SR and Av odds are both on target which is a good result.

Have included the Monthly update as well as the year to date results.

Month 4

 

Group 1 Selections Saturday 11/11/17

G1S

Unfortunately no ratings specials at Flemington today and 4 bets in total today. Scratchings caused a bit of havoc with the rated prices for Stakes Day and sucked a little bit more of what I saw as value out of the meeting. Have included updated rated prices and now deductions will apply to the best available prices from Thursday.

11.11.2017

Rated Prices Flemington

12:15 Flemington Race 1 Aami Maribyrnong Plate 1000m 2YO  Gp3 SW na $150000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

6 King               KMcEvoy       $3.50  $4.40

4 Encryption         DLane         $6.80  $6.00

1 Bionics            ChrisSymons   $8.30  $5.50

2 Grand Challenge    BMelham       $9.00  $8.00

3 Run Naan           AMallyon      $11.20 $27.00

5 Sanglier           DDunn         $15.70 $26.00

 Betting Suggestion: No Bet

 

12:50 Flemington Race 2 Juvenile Diabetes Researc 2000m   BM90 HCP na $120000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

2 Tarquin            HBowman      $3.50   $4.20

5 Have Plenty        SBaster      $7.00   $7.00

6 Shamkiyr           DLane        $7.00   $6.50

1 Kourkam            LCurrie      $9.50   $6.00

10 Kastor             CBrown       $13.50  $46.00Betting Suggestion: 5 Have Plenty

 

 1:30 Flemington Race 3 Melbourne’s Own 3aw Troph 1600m 4YO+  BM96 HCP na $120000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

1 Fastnet Tempest    KMcEvoy      $1.70   $2.60

4 Jacquinot Bay      BShinn       $7.70   $6.50

2 Man Of His Word    BAvdulla     $12.80  $6.50

3 Raw Impulse        DLane        $12.80  $8.00

Betting Suggestion: 1 Fastnet Tempest

 

 2:10 Flemington Race 4 Sensis Digital Trophy 1400m 4YO+  Opn HCP na $120000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

2 Lord Aspen         KMcEvoy      $2.80   $10.00

7 Lite’n In My Veins CWilliams    $5.40   $3.40

3 Bassett            BMertens     $10.80  $12.00

5 Moher              DLane        $12.60  $19.00

16 Spearhead          DYendel      $21.40  $61.00

Betting Suggestion: 2 Lord Aspen EW,

 

 2:50 Flemington Race 5 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m   Gp3 HCP na $300000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

3 Kiwia              DLane        $3.10   $4.60

1 Qewy               KMcEvoy      $3.60   $3.70

4 Vengeur Masque     PMoloney     $7.00   $9.00

6 Gallic Chieftain   CraigWilliam $9.00   $4.20

5 Cool Chap          DDunn        $31.00  $11.00

Betting Suggestion: 3 Kiwia, Quin 3,1,4

 

 3:30 Flemington Race 6 7news Matriarch Stakes 2000m 4YO+ Mares Gp2 SWP na $300000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

2 Prompt Response    BShinn       $3.30   $5.50

10 Savapinski         BAvdulla    $4.50   $6.00

9 Token Of Love      SBaster      $11.00  $16.00

5 Payroll            JMott        $14.40  $9.00

7 Tahanee            DLane        $14.40  $6.00

Betting Suggestion: 2 Prompt Response, Quin 2,10,9

 

 4:10 Flemington Race 7 Darley Classic 1200m   Gp1 WFA na $1000000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

2 Redzel             KMcEvoy      $3.60   $4.20

1 Chautauqua         DDunn        $6.80   $5.50

3 Vega Magic         CraigWilliam $8.30   $5.50

6 Impending          HBowman      $9.10   $8.50

7 Redkirk Warrior    RBayliss     $10.50  $9.00

Betting Suggestion: No Bet

 

 4:55 Flemington Race 8 Emirates Stakes 2000m 3YO+  Gp1 WFA na $2000000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

7 Folkswood          KMcEvoy      $4.50  $5.00

10 Gingernuts         MDee         $5.50  $6.50

15 Cliffs Edge        DYendall     $6.00  $6.00

3 Gailo Chop         JohnAllen    $8.30  $7.50

14 Samovare           DDunn        $17.30 $20.00

Betting Suggestion: 7 Folkswood, Quinella 7,10,15

 

 5:45 Flemington Race 9 Emirates Airline Handicap 1400m 3YO  LR HCP na $150000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

4 Andaz              BMelham      $4.80  $3.90

5 Tamasa             DYendall     $8.80  $6.00

6 Tezlah             CraigWilliam $8.80  $12.00

3 Trekking           BAvdulla     $9.80  $5.00

11 Mr So And So       KMcEvoy      $9.80  $18.00

Betting Suggestion: 6 Tezlah EW

 

 Best Bet:   Race 3- 1 Fastnet Tempest

Best Value: Race 4- 2 Lord Aspen EW

Quad: 10,2,1/2,6,1,3,7/1,3,7,15,13,10/4,5,6,2,3/

 

Rosehill
Race 6 12 Allez Troinne EW  $    26.00
Quin 12,9,13
Race 9 1 King Darci  $       4.50
Doomben
Race 1 7 Injustice EW  $    26.00
Race 2 3 Zukaz  $       8.00
Race 3 15 Hot Talk  $       5.00
Race 5 8 Sylpheed  $       5.00
Quin 8,6,9
Race 7 5 Ringo’s A Rockstar  $       4.80
Race 8 7 Fiery Heights  $       3.60
8 Allknight Saint EW  $    13.00
Quin 7,11,8
Race 9 14 Plucky Girl  $       8.00
12 St Hilary EW  $    11.00
Tri 14,12,11,6,13
Morphettville
Race 3 4 Kirona  $       3.10
Race 8 3 Magnus Knight  $       3.50
Ascot
Race 4 2 Trap For Fools  $       3.70

 

Group 1 Selections Stakes Day Ratings

Ratings done for Stakes Day at Flemington, does not look a whole lot of value throughout the day with few standouts. Have also concluded ratings overs at other venues.

12:15 Flemington Race 1 Aami Maribyrnong Plate 1000m 2YO  Gp3 SW na $150000

No Horse               Jockey           G1SOdds Fixed

6 King                      KMcEvoy       $3.50        $4.40

4 Encryption           DLane            $6.80        $6.00

1 Bionics                  ChrisSymons  $8.30      $5.50

2 Grand Challenge    BMelham     $9.00      $8.00

3 Run Naan               AMallyon      $11.20    $27.00

5 Sanglier                  DDunn          $15.70     $26.00

Betting Suggestion: No Bet

12:50 Flemington Race 2 Juvenile Diabetes Researc 2000m   BM90 HCP na $120000

No Horse                Jockey             G1SOdds Fixed

2 Tarquin               HBowman      $3.50          $4.20

5 Have Plenty        SBaster            $7.00         $7.00

6 Shamkiyr            DLane              $7.00         $6.50

1 Kourkam            LCurrie             $9.50        $6.00

10 Kastor                CBrown             $13.50    $46.00

Betting Suggestion: 2 Tarquin

 

 1:30 Flemington Race 3 Melbourne’s Own 3aw Troph 1600m 4YO+  BM96 HCP na $120000

No Horse                    Jockey            G1SOdds   Fixed

1 Fastnet Tempest    KMcEvoy        $2.00          $2.60

4 Jacquinot Bay        BShinn             $6.80         $6.50

2 Man Of His Word BAvdulla          $11.80       $6.50

3 Raw Impulse          DLane              $11.80       $8.00

Betting Suggestion: 1 Fastnet Tempest

 

 2:10 Flemington Race 4 Sensis Digital Trophy 1400m 4YO+  Opn HCP na $120000

No Horse                          Jockey            G1SOdds      Fixed

2 Lord Aspen                  KMcEvoy        $3.60             $10.00

1 Supply And Demand  TClark             $4.80            $4.80

7 Lite’n In My Veins      CWilliams       $7.40            $3.40

5 Moher                           DLane              $13.60          $19.00

3 Bassett                          BMertens        $15.80           $12.00

Betting Suggestion: 2 Lord Aspen EW

 

 2:50 Flemington Race 5 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m   Gp3 HCP na $300000

No Horse                        Jockey           G1SOdds   Fixed

3 Kiwia                           DLane             $3.10         $4.60

1 Qewy                           KMcEvoy        $3.60         $3.70

4 Vengeur Masque      PMoloney        $7.00        $9.00

6 Gallic Chieftain        CraigWilliam   $9.00        $4.20

5 Cool Chap                  DDunn               $31.00     $11.00

Betting Suggestion: 3 Kiwia, Quin 3,1,4

 

 3:30 Flemington Race 6 7news Matriarch Stakes 2000m 4YO+ Mares Gp2 SWP na $300000

No Horse                       Jockey           G1SOdds     Fixed

6 Falika                          KMcEvoy       $2.60            $4.80

10 Savapinski                BAvdulla        $6.50           $7.50

2 Prompt Response     BShinn            $7.50           $6.50

9 Token Of Love          SBaster            $15.90         $14.00

5 Payroll                       JMott                 $21.40        $10.00

Betting Suggestion: 6 Falika

 

 4:10 Flemington Race 7 Darley Classic 1200m   Gp1 WFA na $1000000

No Horse                 Jockey             G1SOdds   Fixed

2 Redzel                  KMcEvoy         $4.40           $3.90

12 In Her Time       CBrown            $4.90          $8.00

3 Vega Magic         CraigWilliam   $8.90          $4.80

1 Chautauqua        DDunn              $12.70       $6.50

6 Impending          HBowman        $13.30       $8.50

Betting Suggestion: 12 In Her Time EW

 

 4:55 Flemington Race 8 Emirates Stakes 2000m 3YO+  Gp1 WFA na $2000000

No Horse              Jockey              G1SOdds      Fixed

7 Folkswood           KMcEvoy       $4.50             $5.00

10 Gingernuts                                  $5.50            $6.50

15 Cliffs Edge        DYendall           $6.00           $6.00

3 Gailo Chop         JohnAllen         $8.30           $7.50

14 Samovare           DDunn             $17.30         $20.00

Betting Suggestion: 7 Folkswood, Quinella 7,10,15

 

 5:45 Flemington Race 9 Emirates Airline Handicap 1400m 3YO  LR HCP na $150000

No Horse              Jockey          G1SOdds     Fixed

4 Andaz               BMelham        $4.80           $3.90

5 Tamasa             DYendall         $8.80          $6.00

6 Tezlah               CraigWilliam $8.80           $12.00

3 Trekking           BAvdulla         $9.80          $5.00

11 Mr So And So  KMcEvoy        $9.80          $18.00

Betting Suggestion: 6 Tezlah EW

 

 

Best Bet: Race 6- 6 Falika

Best Value: Race 4- 2 Lord Aspen EW

Quad: 6,10,2,1/2,12,6,1,3,7/1,3,7,15,13,10/4,5,6,9,2,3/

 

Other Venues

Rosehill
Race 6 12 Allez Troinne EW  $    26.00
Quin 12,9,13
Race 9 1 King Darci  $       4.50
Doomben
Race 1 7 Injustice EW  $    26.00
Race 2 3 Zukaz  $       8.00
Race 3 15 Hot Talk  $       5.00
Race 5 8 Sylpheed  $       5.00
Quin 8,6,9
Race 7 5 Ringo’s A Rockstar  $       4.80
Race 8 7 Fiery Heights  $       3.60
8 Allknight Saint EW  $    13.00
Quin 7,11,8
Race 9 14 Plucky Girl  $       8.00
12 St Hilary EW  $    11.00
Tri 14,12,11,6,13
Morphettville
Race 3 4 Kirona  $       3.10
Race 8 3 Magnus Knight  $       3.50
Ascot
Race 4 2 Trap For Fools  $       3.70

Group 1 Selections Thursday 09.11.2017 (+updated Oaks Day Ratings)

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Ordinary day yesterday but some nice bets at Flemington today:

 

09.11.2017.PNG

Updated ratings after scratchings for Oaks Day:

12:15 Flemington Race 1 Drinkwise Plate (bm70) 1700m 3&4YO F&M BM70 HCP na $120000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

14 Linguist           LJMeech       $4.00  $5.00

10 So Splendid        HBowman       $9.30  $6.50

9 Lilymorn           PMoloney      $14.60 $26.00

3 Groovin            MJWalker      $15.40 $21.00

1 That Rings A Bell  BMelham       $17.90 $7.50

 Betting Suggestion: 14 Linguist, 9 Lilymorn plce

 

 

12:55 Flemington Race 2 Twitter Trophy (bm90) 1800m 4-6YO  BM90 HCP na $120000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

9 Ebediyin           DLane         $3.90  $7.50

5 Hogmanay           HBowman       $5.00  $8.50

2 Von Tunzelman      BShinn        $6.50  $8.50

6 Captain Duffy      NCallow       $8.30  $17.00

7 Carraig Aonair     CraigWilliam  $12.40 $12.00

 Betting Suggestion: 9 Ebediyin, 6 Captain Duffy EW, Tri 9,5,2,6,3 (50%)

 

 

 1:35 Flemington Race 3 Off The Track Subzero (bm 1400m   BM90 HCP na $120000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

5 Urban Ruler        BShinn        $2.10  $4.00

6 Silvera            JKah          $5.20  $5.00

10 Chalk              RKing         $15.50 $8.50

12 Valac              CParish       $17.10 $9.5

Betting Suggestion: 5 Urban Ruler

 

 

 2:15 Flemington Race 4 Melb. Cup Carn. Ctry Cup- 1600m   BM80 HCP na $200000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

2 Nights Watch       JohnAllen     $2.90  $3.40

6 Pot Black          JTodd         $9.70  $34.00

3 Emoji              KMcEvoy       $15.90 $9.00

11 Frankly Harvey     MDee          $17.60 $81.00

10 Barry The Baptist  HCoffey       $19.50 $24.00

Betting Suggestion: 2 Nights Watch, 6 Pot Black plce ($9.00) 11 Frankly Harvey plce ($21.00)Quin 2,6,3 & Tri 2,6,3,11,10

 

2:55 Flemington Race 5 Tcl Tv Stakes 1400m   Gp3 HCP na $200000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

10 Fox Hall           LCurrie       $2.80  $9.00

1 Ulmann             DLane         $4.80  $5.50

5 Hellova Street     BAvdulla      $5.60  $4.60

2 Supply And Demand  BMertens      $8.30  $6.00

9 Echo Effect        DDunn         $15.00 $5.00

Betting Suggestion: 10 Fox Hall EW, Quin 10,1,2

 

 

 3:35 Flemington Race 6 Absolut Stakes 1000m 3YO+  LR SWP na $150000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

2 Ball Of Muscle     GSchofield    $2.30  $2.15

3 Badajoz            KMcEvoy       $6.00  $6.50

7 Mile High          JKah          $9.50  $12.00

5 Crystal Dreamer    DLane         $17.30 $11.00

6 Thelburg           CraigWilliam  $24.60 $19.00

Betting Suggestion: 3 Badajoz, Quin 2,3,7

 

 

4:15 Flemington Race 7 Seppelt Wines Stakes 1800m 3YO  LR SWP na $150000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

2 Sambro             HBowman       $5.60  $3.80

5 Sky Boy            CBrown        $5.90  $7.50

15 Sweet Victory      TClark        $6.50  $7.00

3 All Too Huiying    MJWalker      $9.10  $19.00

7 Captain Jimmy      NCallow       $11.70 $19.00

Betting Suggestion: No Bet

 

 

 

 5:00 Flemington Race 8 Kennedy Oaks 2500m 3YO F Gp1 SW na $1000000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

1 Aloisia            LNolen        $2.05  $1.55

2 Luvaluva           BShinn        $5.90  $7.00

4 Pinot              SBaster       $9.20  $6.00

5 Rimraam            KMcEvoy       $18.90 $14.00

6 Hiyaam             MDee          $23.90 $23.00

 Betting Suggestion: 2 Luvaluva (small win)

 

 

 

 5:45 Flemington Race 9 Kennedy Plate 1100m 3YO F Gp3 SWP na $200000

No Horse              Jockey       G1SOdds Fixed

5 Demerara           BAvdulla      $2.42  $4.20

7 Smart Coupe        DLane         $5.70  $7.00

1 Debonairly         KMcEvoy       $8.90  $5.00

8 Egyptian Bullet    JMott         $15.70 $26.00

13 Wrapsody           MDee          $20.20 $16.00

Betting Suggestion: 5 Demerara, Tri 5,7,1,8,13 (50%)

 

 

Best Bet:   Race 1: 14 Linguist

Best Value: Race 5: 10 Fox Hall EW ($9.00 & $3.00- deductions)

Quad:2,3,7,1/5,2,15,3,4/1,2/5,7,8,6,1,2,4