Group 1 Selections Thursday 14.09.2017

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Well this bad little run continues with a horror run today. Only 1 winner out of the 8 bets and a number of shorties going down. Unfortunately most of the ratings standouts for tomorrow and Saturday are also fairly short in the market. 2 bets tomorrow as below:

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Group 1 Selections Week 6 Review.

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Our first loss for the new season comes in week 6 and it was a very disappointing Saturday in particular. Sheet and results below:

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05/09/17 Mackay 6 5 Whitehouse Affair  $                       3.30  $                  61.00 Unpl -$    61.00
06/09/17 Ipswich 2 2 Scoutabout  $                       2.20  $                  91.00 2nd -$    91.00
06/09/17 Ipswich 6 2 Gracida  $                       2.00  $               100.00 1st  $       2.00  $        200.00  $  100.00
06/09/17 Belmont 5 3 On The Turps  $                       6.00  $                  34.00 3rd -$    34.00  $  6,896.80
07/09/17 Gosford 2 6 We’re Smokin  $                     23.00  $                    9.00 3rd -$      9.00
07/09/17 Rockhampton 5 7 Poetic Show  $                       5.00  $                  40.00 2nd -$    40.00
07/09/17 Northam 6 1 First Affair  $                       4.00  $                  50.00 1st  $       4.00  $        200.00  $  150.00  $  6,997.80
09/09/17 Doomben 7 3 Of The Day  $                       2.10  $                  96.00 3rd -$    96.00
09/09/17 Doomben 7 7 My Girl Hayley  SCR
09/09/17 Rosehill 4 3 Addictive Nature  $                       2.70  $                  75.00 3rd -$    75.00
09/09/17 Rosehill 5 8 Cannyescent  $                       5.50  $                  37.00 unpl -$    37.00
09/09/17 Rosehill 6 7 Bonny O’Reilly  $                       4.00  $                  50.00 unpl -$    50.00
09/09/17 Rosehill 8 9 Mana  $                       9.00  $                  23.00 unpl -$    23.00
09/09/17 Moonee Valley 3 10 Emoji  $                     12.00  $                  17.00 3rd -$    17.00
09/09/17 Moonee Valley 6 6 Roomooz  SCR
09/09/17 Moonee Valley 9 2 Boom Time  $                       7.50  $                  27.00 unpl -$    27.00
09/09/17 Belmont 7 6 By Decree  $                       4.40  $                  46.00 unpl -$    46.00
09/09/17 Belmont 8 4 Floyd  $                       3.00  $                  67.00 1st  $       3.00  $        201.00  $  134.00  $  6,760.80
10/09/17 Kalgoorlie 6 3 War God  $                       3.40  $                  59.00 UNPL -$    59.00
10/09/17 Kalgoorlie 7 3 Happy Harry  $                       4.80  $                  42.00 1st  $       4.80  $        201.60  $  159.60  $  6,861.40

Group 1 Selections Tuesday 05.09.2017

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Just the one bet tomorrow in what has been a quiet couple of days. Saturday’s results also attached below as well as end of week results. Another profitable week to start the new season.

05.09.2017

Week 5 68.6% POT
17 Bets 8 Wins 47% SR $3.34 Av Odds
Staking $946 Out $1595.20 In $649.20 Profit
Level Stakes 17 Units Out 26.6 Units In 9.6 Units Profit

Group 1 Selections Friday 01.09.2017

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Well we made it 6 winners in a row today with Adalita just getting the job done at Pakenham. Been a very successful week but I am always mindful that these results will average out over time. Lets just hope it is not tomorrow!! A very nice card at Wyong with a number of bets. Also one of the strongest cards in terms of depth I can remember for the Cairns amateur carnival.

All Friday’s selections are below!!

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Group 1 Selections Birdsville & Cairns Carnival Selections 2017

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As a proud Queenslander 2 of the best country carnivals in this state are held this weekend. What a contrast from the edge of the desert Birdsville to tropical Cairns, I have had the pleasure of attending both and recommend both carnivals to any racing fan. I personally wouldn’t have a bet in each race but I will provide a selection in each for both days for those either attending or following from home.

Birdsville Friday 01.09.2017

Race 1: 2 Sensational Song

Race 2: 3 Tyranny

Race 3: 1 Rooi Roe

Race 4: 3 Timetus

Race 5: 5 Canny Excel

Race 6: 3 Refustress

Birdsville Saturday 02.09.2017

Race 1: 5 Sensational Song (9 Playbook if scratched)

Race 2: 1 Payback

Race 3: 5 Spur With Ease

Race 4: 2 Cambooya Rock

Race 5: 1 Wilker

Race 6 (The Birdsville Cup): 3 Chasing The Dragon **special** Quinella 3,7,1

Race 7: 2 Wulfwin

 

Cairns Friday 01.09.2017

Race 1: 1 Arno Boy

Race 2: 3 Well Beat It

Race 3: 13 Effigy Belle**special** (if scratched 14 Tecza)

Race 4: 6 We Just Love It **special**

Race 5: 7 Princess Sidereus

Race 6: 1 Space Time

Race 7: 1 Sporting Page, Tri 1,15,14,10,8

Cairns Saturday 02.09.2017

Race 1: 1 Bold Endeavour

Race 2: 6 Stone Philospher

Race 3: 9 Lily Kareena

Race 4: 7 Hidden In Heaven, 3 Bold Gypsy

Race 5: 3 Pinyardi **special** (if scratched 4 Metallic Crown)

Race 6 (Cairns Amateur Cup) 7 Bold And Groovy, 12 Gunga Galunga EW, Tri 7,12,4,1,5

Race 8: 6 Devastating Rhythm

 

Group 1 Selections Feature Race Preview Saturday 02.09.2017

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Caulfield Race 7: Group 1 Memsie Stakes Distance: 1400m Track: Good 3

First Group 1 of the new season and it is some race on paper. 12 starters and most are previous Group 1 winners. As always there will be a number of stayers resuming that will be unsuited as they just begin warm ups for further into the spring whilst there a couple of late winter sprinters in red hot form.

Race Setup

Should be no shortage of pace here with Vega Magic and Charmed Harmony both having lightning early speed, natural leaders/ on pacers Hey Doc and I Am A Star will be able to get nice cover behind these two leaders whilst Le Romain should also get a cosy run. As for the rest, Yankee Rose is drawn a little awkwardly and may need to go forward a little to be worse than midfield with Black Heart Bart and Single Gaze while Seaburge, Humidor and Tosen Stardom look to be forced back by either their draws or natural early speed.

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Ratings

No Horse  G1S Odds  Sportsbet Open  Sportsbet
5 Vega Magic $3.10 $2.60 $2.80
1 Black Heart Bart $4.20 $7.00 $6.00
2 Le Romain $5.90 $5.50 $6.00
8 Hey Doc $6.40 $6.50 $6.50
12 Yankee Rose $9.80 $8.50 $13.00

Race Analysis

Tough, tough race to get confident about here. Whilst Vega Magic is top rater and coming off a huge win last start, this is another level again vs some of the best horses in Australia. Pressure up front at the horse’s maximum distance range means that the short odds look a risky proposition.

Black Heart Bart looks a safe edge on the market in this race, proven in this class, on this track and at this distance I just have some query about whether he is on the other side of his career bell curve in terms of performance. If he is to be a player this spring I think he should be close to winning here.

Le Romain has to be one of the toughest horses in Australia, always gives his all and even in defeat he is never far away. Has only had 1 trip down to Melbourne before when a classy winner of the mile race during the carnival. Was good 1st up behind stablemate Invincible Gem (who I rate highly for Saturday) but this is a very tough field 2nd up. The $6.00 looks about right and drawn to get a cosy run and couldn’t talk his fans out of backing him.

Couldn’t ask for much more from Hey Doc 1st up when leading down the straight and finding late when under pressure from the backmarkers, has a tremendous 2nd up record but am not 100% convinced his 3yo peak ratings are high enough to be beating the top liners. Again the prices on offer on Sportsbet look accurate and happy to have another look at himin this grade without my money.

Although she is down the ratings a little I actually like the profile Yankee Rose brings to this race, she has almost won a Golden Slipper 1st up and then ran out of her skin when upside down and in the wrong part of the track in the Golden Rose when 1st up last prep. At her best I think she was one of the best 3yo’s in regards to her peak ratings and she has been trialling well which is not common for her. The draw maybe a little awkward but I think David Van Dyke will have her primed here for another big 1st up run.

 

Betting Strategy

This is a tough race from a betting point of view, I have the favourite marked longer and a question mark over Black Heart Bart and there seems to be little value edge to be had with Le Romain and Hey Doc so I tempted to have an EW play on my 5th rater in Yankee Rose ($13.00 & $3.60). Providing Dean Yendall can get her comfortable from that draw without using too much energy I believe she will be strong late. Maybe take Black Heart Bart the place ($2.15) as some insurance or just straight out bet for those that don’t mind the short price.

Randwick Race 6: Group 2 Furious Stakes Distance: 1200m Track: Good 3

Classy bunch of fillies to take their places on the way to the princess series races and am really keen on one in particular. Three of the top raters faced each other last start here at this track and trip and that makes them a little easier to get a line on but we then have the ex Western Australian now Melbourne filly in Seannie, Autumn star Whispered Secret as well as former Group class performed NZ filly in Joyfilly Ours to throw a spanner in the works.

Race Setup

I cant see a more than moderate speed here with Formality and Alizee looking to settle forward but I doubt they cut at each other. Joyfilly Ours is now with Waterhouse- Bott stable so a near certainty she will go forward but hopefully doesn’t lead as she will get a nice sit on the fence off these two leaders if she wants. Champagne Cuddles looks like settling midfield whilst Whispered Secret, I Am Excited and Seannie should all be further back.

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Ratings

No Horse  G1S Odds  Sportsbet Open  Sportsbet
1 Formality $2.60 $3.80 $3.60
3 Champagne Cuddles $3.80 $3.20 $3.10
5 Alizee $6.40 $3.10 $3.10
2 Whispered Secret $14.20 $12.00 $13.00
6 Joyfilly Ours $18.90 $12.00 $13.00

Race Analysis

Really keen on Formality here and my confidence maybe misplaced but I cannot see how she can be priced equal too or less than the two fillies she beat last start, especially here at level weights when she gave them 1kg last start. I think she can lead or sit outside the leader again and believe she wins this race at a decent enough price as well.

No knock on the next two fillies either, Champagne Cuddles perhaps has the most excuses last start when eased soon after the jump and then laying out a little in the straight, hasn’t been past the one start in any of her preps so hard to know what improvement is to come but she maybe the on that can beat Formality if she does come on from that run.

Alizee challenged and in fact got her nose in front on Formality in the last 100m before outgunned late. I think they will be a little more positive here and can lead from that gate but not sure she can turn the tables.

Am excited to see where Whispered Secret ends up this prep as I have her pinned as a real VRC Oaks type. Was super last prep when coming out of a Newcastle maiden to win at listed level and Group 1 placed. They maybe a little sharp for her here but I think she will be strong through the line late.

Hard to know what to make of Joyfilly Ours against this field, she very nearly was a G2 winner at just her 3rd start in NZ before finishing 3rd behind Melody Belle at G1 level at the end of that 1st prep. NZ 2yo form is not usually the strongest although Melody Belle did perform in the Brisbane winter. This filly’s first trial in Aus was excellent although her latest trial 10 days ago left a little to be desired. Happy to have her run around without me and see where she measures up here.

 

 

Betting Strategy

For all the reasons above I am firmly in 1 Formality’s ($3.80) corner here and see her as a very solid bet. I think she can dictate terms and level weights suits her even more than last start.

2 Whispered Secret ($13.00) is the one I want to be following throughout the spring and I believe she will be running through the line solidly. If she got out to $18.00- $19.00 I could be tempted into a small play.