Preview below for a great day of racing. Good luck to all!!
Royal Randwick Track Heavy 8- Soft 7
Race 1 Widden Stakes Group 3 1100m
Great little race for the 2yo’s to kick off and not much splits a couple of handy 2yo’s here in 2 Condor Heroes and 1 Property. Property was outstanding leading into the Blue Diamond Stakes where he ran well when beaten 5th 2.85L, wet track is some concerns but has class. Condor Heroes has a lot of wraps on him for a horse having his 3rd start and there was plenty of talk of him running a race in the Slipper before missing a crucial lead up to gain entry won his maiden last start on a heavy 9 may give him an edge on this surface. 2 others in the market are Sheikha and Aizee and whilst I think both have chances I have them under the odds and leaning toward the boys.
Suggested Bets: Take your pick 2 Condor Heroes $4.60 or 1 Property $7.00, I am leaning Condor Heroes but maybe play the exacta/quin as well.
Race 2 Carbine Club Stakes Group 3 1600m
Pretty keen on 4 Theanswerismyfriend here, wet track looks to be little concern as the stable booked in early when we were looking at an extremely heavy track and the High Chaparral’s get through it. That bloodline as well as his super impressive walkover at Flemington points to him doing even better at the 1600m in my opinion and I think he is one of the better bets on the card.
Expected a little more from 5 Acatour last start and he has been below his spring runs so far this prep and I am thinking he may not be appreciating these wet tracks. Rates ok up to the mile here but I am risking him until he gets on top of the ground.
Been a push around for 2 Eusebio who has a tremendous record (5-3-2-0) but had been going around the provincials before storming late to win the Canberra Guineas in an impressive performance. James Doyle is on here and is the danger horse to my top rater.
One that has not rated as well for me but I think can run a race is 6 Mr Sneaky, beat home Theanswerismyfirend (unlucky) last time they met and in a smart stable and the High Chap/ Danehill points to the wet track and mile no problem. Keep safe in exotics
Suggested Bets: 4 Theanswerismyfriend looks a good bet $3.80
Race 3 Chairman’s Stakes Group 2 2600m
Tricky little race for the Sydney Cup horses here and the market looks a little bit suffocated by 1 Big Duke. He rates, really strongly for me here after a getting the win in the stewards room last start (I am still cursing Craig Williams) if he stays at that level than it is hard to see them tossing him here. Not entirely over the moon with the $2.70
Another Team Llyod Williams horse looks the danger here in 3 Aloft, ran his best race in Australia by some way last start when getting the job done over 1800m, big step up in distance here but if he finds his best European form in this he will be hard to hold out. Price is still a little skinny compared to what I have him rated at.
Bit of odds about the kiwi 7 Rock On, consistent 4yo gelding on the up (20-4-5-1) who looks to go on all surfaces although the sting out maybe favourable to all these NZ stayers. Ratings show a stayer on the rise and a good winner of the 2500m NZ St Leger last start. Some hope.
6 Polarisation’s Euro form hardly sets the formguide alight but I doubt a man as shrewd as Charlie Appleby brings a horse halfway around the world for a haircut, Kerrin McEvoy on a stayer is also a big positive, the horse has won at this trip (1-1-0-0) and seem to like soft ground (4-3-0-0) and whist there is nothing in the video form to suggest he will be winning this my suggestion to all exotic players would be to keep him safe.
Suggested Bet: 1 Big Duke small win bet, tricky race.
Race 4 Country Championships Final 1400m
I will not go into too much detail in the only non-group race of the day but I do like one here dropping well back in grade in 15 Pumpkin Pie, gets onto what looks to be a better surface and drops back from G2 level. Will be storming late the obvious danger but very short, and I do like 6 Careless Choice going forward.
Suggested Bet: Small win bet 15 Pumpkin Pie, Tri 15,3,6,4,5
Race 5 PJ Bell Stakes Group 3 1200M
Bet of the day here in 3 Rainment, she was a Saturday Special 2 starts back when bolting in and this race doesn’t look a whole lot harder. Stays at 1200m, the track looks soft at best again and I see her as the winner here providing she runs up to last start. I took $4.60 early doors and she keeps getting backed to the point she is a little short now. If she gets to $2.70 or better come race time she is a decent bet.
12 Zumbelina looks the one to beat here from the Chris Waller yard and coming off a soft trial win, this is a step up in grade but goes well fresh.
7 Samantha was solid behind Rainment last start but unsure how she turns the tables, likes this track and soft she will be around the mark again
Bit of value here in 6 Sweet Sherry, and her wet runs jump out in the formguide (2-2-0-0), very good at Flemington last start should get a decent ride from the barrier. Knockout chance at $15.00+
Suggested Bet: 3 Rainment at $2.70+, 6 Sweet Sherry EW $15.00+
Race 6 Sires Group 1 1400m
First Group One of the day and a cracking race to pull apart. 14 Frolic was excellent running second in the golden slipper and has been in top form all preparation, the wet track is no issue and 1400m seems to suit, awkward draw but she will be going back anyways, deserving favourite.
Not much between Frolic and 15 Tulip in the betting and not much between them in the ratings either, thought Tulip’s run in the Golden Slipper was impressive on ground that didn’t, David Hayes has said she will be better over more ground and gets her chance here. She will be there at the finish
One at rough odds here in 4 Veranillo, horse has had genuine excuses all prep and was vetted at the barrier before a fair run when making some ground late. I do not believe he appreciated the truly heavy track that day and on an improving surface I think he can run a race at decent odds. Gets the best jockey in the world in Joao Moreira on and should be able to settle closer to the speed from the draw, rough ew chance at $21.00
Also give chances to 3 Diamond Tathagata, 8 Invader (been well supported) and 13 Summer Passage
Suggested Bets: 14 Frolic, 4 Veranillo EW, Tri 14,15,4,8,3,9
Race 7 Australian Derby Group 1 2400m
Truly believe this is the race of the day and we will see if 2 Gingernuts is a flash in the pan or something truly special as he shoots for 5 in a row. His NZ Derby win rated strongly and returned ratings figures with me equal to Mongolian Khan and above Tavago, that figure dipped a little on a truly heavy Randwick track when his class got him a win that was quite soft in the end. I got in early in the Pre Post before the Rosehill Guineas after following him right through since his Avondale Guineas win and providing he can hold his form at the end of what has been a long prep he should be good enough here. Short enough here now though.
3 Inference the obvious danger but I do believe he had everything to suit last start when coming off a strong Randwick Guineas win, up to 2000m, on a wet track he has seemed to appreciate all through his career. Just got left behind when Gingernuts sprinted, his run in the VRC Derby over this trip was full of merit when desperately unlucky. Hard to see him turning the tables on the fav but if GIngernuts has had one run to many than Inference could be the one.
I wasn’t too keen on 4 Jon Snow in this race after his solid 3rd in the NZ Derby as I think 2000m is his go but after watching the way he won with ease last start he has come back into calculations. Not overly keen on the price and think he should be double figure odds but bookies and punters have been caught out with the NZ form and I believe an overreaction has taken place. Solid place chance.
1 Prized Icon has had his colours lowered a little after finishing last prep on a high note winning the VRC Derby at this trip, been mixing his form a little but did look to be back near his best last start. His best is good enough but just have reservations about him producing that here today. He can surprise in this race but I will be including in exotics only.
Throw in 8 Ruthven as well, his form in Victoria has been solid enough and I think he will appreciate the trip, should be forward in the race which is always an advantage, $19.00 is not a bad price.
Anaheim has claims on an improving track as well.
Suggested Bets: 2 Gingernuts Win, 8 Ruthven EW, F4: 2.3/2,3,1,4/1,4,7,8,11,5/1,4,7,8,11,5
Race 8 TJ Smith Stakes Group 1 1200m
I have gone with 13 Astern on top providing he starts (camp worried about a truly heavy track) I think he was the best of his generation last prep in Sydney and believe he could go next level against the older horses 1st Up, some risk with such a long break between runs and an aborted Melb trip but $6.50 lets you find out with a decent reward. He will be scratched if not ready for this.
Chances to Russian Revolution (brilliant 1st up) Chautauqua (below his best this prep buts Chat) and 8 Voodoo Lad ( brilliant 1st up, wet no issue)
Suggested Bets: 13 Astern If he starts, 8 Voodoo Lad EW $17.00
Race 9 Doncaster Mile Group 1 1600m
As always this race is very, very tricky. A lot of formlines converging and this year more so than ever, to be honest I have a pre-post bet Spectroscope @ $51.00 and I have not been really able to find anything in my ratings to get excited about. Will run quickly through my ratings.
2 Le Romain, tough as teak, G1 winner this prep and goes all conditions, not fully convinced Randwick mile and at the top of the weights.
3 Palentino, have had to forgive the horror show we witnessed this track and trip in the Epsom in the spring but if he pulls out another drunken shopping trolley performance could be in trouble. In great form in Victoria and not a bad form race he won last start, 1600m is his go and also has no qualms on wet ground
11 Mcreery, has the Waller Doncaster feel about him this horse, less than 2L off them last prep in the 2 feature mile races in both Sydney and Melbourne, gets through any ground and gets Kerrin McEvoy, looks hard to beat here and the one I am leaning to.
15 Hey Doc, In top form in Melbourne and now has to bring it up against these older horses, puts himself into his races on pace, very awkward draw for him to do that and not entirely convinced about him on a Soft 7/ Heavy 8
16 Antonio Giuseppe, tough horse down in the weights, gets 2000m+, likes it wet, and a cosy draw, a few ticks but the horse has changed direction mid prep and not something I usually like seeing, Waller is a genius though and he may be able to get the job done.
19 Spectroscope, been with this horse since his 1st trial win Australia and looks to have a touch of class, finds himself thrown in at the weights down on the minimum although he has drawn extremely wide but does have Joao Moreira on to help overcome it. I am on at the big odds early and think he can be giving this a big shake.
14 I Am A Star, this little girl is a star and would want to be meeting and giving weight to a lot of these older horses, cant doubt her prep and her last 2 wins have been simply brilliant. Not entirely convinced about her on rain affected ground but her win last start was proper G1 rating. If it was WFA I would almost have her on top.
Suggested Bets: Happy with early ticket Spectroscope, win bet 11 McCreery $12.00, small EW I Am A Star $18.00
Race 10 Adrian Knox Stakes Group 3 2000m
Not a race can get entirely stoked about, even bunch of fillies and a quaddie killer for me last year after kicking off with Tavago!! Have liked what I have seen from 3 Mull Over so far and a beautifully bred filly (High Chaparral x Zabeel mare) think she has better races ahead of her the way she put them away in her Newcastle maiden win last start, some nerves about this race coming around too soon
Like the Waterhouse/ Bott filly in 5 Almalita, puts herself right into her races and should be able to lead them up here and hard to get past, ran well enough behind Tiamo Grace last prep at Flemington.
Also like 4 High Impulse (good win last time, 2 Perfect Rhyme and give a rough hope to 12 Face Like Thunder at big odds $35.00
Suggested Bets: 3 Mull Over, 12 Face Like Thunder EW
Race 2: 4 Theanswerismyfriend
Race 5: 3 Rainment
Quaddie numbers: 2,3,1/13,14,1,2,8/19,15,14,3,2,11,10/3,4,12,2,1,5,9/