Caulfield
Race 2: Zeditave Stakes 1200m G3
Nice 3yo race for the colts to kick off the day in Melbourne and a few formlines meeting here a well. Adelaide horse Benz was impressive in the spring and finds himself in a tough race first up and should look to go forward from the good gate. Yulong Yongxing was desperately unlucky last start in Adelaide but that was lengths below this grade, really liked the run of Gratwick last start at Moonee Valley in a similar grade of race here, Craig Williams is on and he will put himself right into the race up in speed. The two I have settled on are 5 Into Orbit who is building a terrific record and is back in grade from a last start 2nd in a smart field and 4 Gratwick EW who seems to be some nice overs.
Race 4: Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m G2
I see this as a race in two between the Hayes yard filly Fuhryk and Team Weir’s tough filly in Jennifer Lynn, Fuhryk could not have been more impressive her last start storming over the top of them, this is her first go at this trip though and that is a query for me. Jennifer Lynn won 3 on end last prep and finished her prep with a solid 3rd against some well performed colts. Unlucky to miss 1st up at an unsuitable trip and down the straight and was tight for room last start, however she gets back out to her favourite trip here and whilst I prefer her round a bend at Flemington I think she is some nice overs in this race. Will play her win only and save on the Exacta with Fuhryk.
Race 5: Futurity Stakes Stakes 1400m G1
I very nearly went away from Black Heart Bart but just cannot tip against the horse. However I will not be taking the very short odds about him either. If Turn Me Loose improves off his Orr Stakes run then I think he will be very tough to run down, he maybe just looking for the 1600m now though. I think these two will run 1st and 2nd but I don’t believe there will be much between them. I thought Ecuador wold have been very tough to beat in the Peter Young over 1800m if they went there and he should be around the mark here again, I also think He’s Our Rokki can improve as well at decent odds. Big watch on the ex- Japanese horse Tosen Stardom, he will improve off whatever he does today.
Race 6: Peter Young Stakes 1800m G2
Another tough betting race and very little separates my top 3. Humidor rates on top but not a lot of value at his current price although $5.50- $6.00 was around on Wednesday, The United States rates really well and I am pretty keen on him at his current price, he is a proven WFA horse against Humidor who we don’t know will measure up and Jameka who looks more a 2400m type. Watch on a couple of stayers fresh here in Tally and Exospheric, whilst I don’t think they will be winning I think they maybe up around the minor placings late and will only improve.
Race 7: Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m G1
Wont find a more even bunch of 2yo’s I don’t think in a race where luck will play a huge part. I have my top 5 rated together closely in order of: Catchy, Property, Pariah, Roomooz & Tulip and will be working with these. I have settled on Property for a couple of reasons, providing he jumps well he should find the perfect position from gate 2, Joe Moreira is an aggressive rider who likes to put his horses right into the race and I think that is what is needed here, Catchy is going to need luck from out there and she is an outstanding filly but just at the price I have here slight unders. Everyone has been tipping Roomooz as their value horse and that has seen his price come in a but I still think there is some value there at the $15.00+ mark. Have settled on Property but maybe the Quinella 11,1,4 and the Tri and F4: 11,1,4,15,13,12 could be some nice value as well.
Race 8: Oakleigh Plate 1200m G1
I found this race to be a nightmare needle in a haystack job and I couldn’t possibly tip anything with confidence, my ratings tell me the winner will come from Hellbent, I Am A Star, Extreme Choice and Sheidel but cannot put one on top. Maybe Sheidel EW is the safest play but good luck punters!!
Randwick
Race 6: Surround Stakes 1400m G2
What a race this is!! Some of the best fillies in the country (and 1 from NZ!!) line up here in what could be one of the best form races of the Autumn. Global Glamour was tough as nail last start when setting a cracking tempo and kicking in the straight to just hang on in the closest of photos, back up to 1400m today and a softish track she will have to be every bit as tough today. I do have concerns that she has only seen the paddock for 2-3 weeks since August last year and this can take its toll on young horses. Almost running Golden Glamour down last start was Foxplay, talking through kick as I was very keen on her in that race she was brilliant giving away a huge start but sprinting hard to just miss, have concerns about that run and its effect on her here 2nd up but if she settles closer she will be a player again. I have no doubt Omei Sword is the best filly in this race, but she has had a number of setbacks this prep and hence we are getting some odds about her. I personally don’t think Chris Waller would be starting one of his young starts if he did not believe she could be competitive. There is one here at huge odds that not many will agree with me on and that is Pumpkin Pie, she is coming out of country form but her run last start was massive, forced to race very wide on pace she just had far too much class, big step up here but loves this distance (2-2-0-0) this track (3-1-1-0) and also loves the sting out (Soft-Heavy 2-2-0-0) I think at the $31.00 she is worth a smaller ew spec. Chances don’t end there but we will have a look at La Bella Diosa as well, dominant G1 winner in NZ and having her first start here in Aus, she will love the rain around and she may measure right up to these, do not leave her out of Tri’s F4’s and quaddie bets.
Race 7: Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m G1
Not a lot to say here, Winx should win, Hartnel should run well again, I think Endless Drama, Libran and Magic Hurricane fight out 3rd and 4th. Wet track may bring WInx back to the field but until Hartnell is ridden on pace and tries to put a gap on her he will not beat her. I think they will be saving that tactic until the Queen Elizabeth so expect another barrier trial race today.
Race 8: Guy Walter Stakes 1400m G2
Another good race for the fillies and mares here and I think there is a little bit of value as well, Danish Twist is a mare that always needs a bit of luck in her runs but when she gets that she is right up with best of them, soft ground is a bonus for her, First Seal is back for one last prep and will be interesting to see what she does today, won 2nd up last start and looked in for a good prep but was below her best in the G1 Myer, one I am pretty keen on at the price is Shillelagh, looked outstanding value last start when opening at $10.00 and backed right in to $4.50 before she was unfortunately put out of the race by a falling horse. Soft track brings her right back into this and decent value again. Will be playing Danish Twist and Shillelagh.
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